500
FXUS63 KARX 140743
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY (20-40%), MOSTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LOT MORE MISS THAN HIT.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON-EVENING. CURRENT
RISK IS TRENDING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER - BUT TIMING/LOCATION
IS NOT CERTAIN (YET). LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
- TODAY: A FEW MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE (20-40%).
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED TUE.
REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING, EVIDENCED BY A SMALL CURL IN THE LATEST
WATERVAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LITTLE/IF ANY PUSH IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE TO DISLODGE IT - AT LEAST FOR TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED BITS
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE/IF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS
A TRIGGER. MOSTLY, THE RAIN THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPS (BY 1 PM) AND UPWARDS OF 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE (IN THE
RAP). THEN, ANY SUBTLE BOUNDARIES (OUTFLOWS, CLOUD/SUNNY TEMP
DISCONTINUITIES, ETC) COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWER-STORMS HERE AND
THERE.
NOT MUCH WIND SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE SLOW MOVING - AND COULD
LEAD TO A QUICK 1/4-1/2" FOR A LOCATION WHERE 5 MILES IN ANY OTHER
DIRECTION IT STAYS SUNNY. SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER, BUT
DON'T ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.
-THURSDAY: SEVERE STORM THREAT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO SWING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY,
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH CYCLOGENESIS KICKING IN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES. THE STORM SYSTEM'S SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO
LIFT ACROSS FAR EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN BY 00Z FRI, WHIPPING THE
SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT A
BRANCH MAY CATCH UP TO THE THE SFC BOUNDARY FOR THU EVENING. MOSTLY
THOUGH, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/EC HOLD THE BRUNT OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THU/THU NIGHT.
IN THE MORNING A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY SPAWNING SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG IT. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE HOLDS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS MN, INTO NORTHWEST
WI.
FETCH OF RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR WILL FUNNEL NORTHWARD BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (ALBEIT STILL OVERDONE IN THE
GFS). WITH SFC TDS IN THE MID 60S, SBCAPES OF 2500+ J/KG SHOULD
MANIFEST IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, THAT WARMING WILL ALSO WORK TO
CAP THE ATMOSPHERE - WHICH LATEST RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WON'T
"BREAK" UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY, WITH THE STRONGER CAP
(WARMER AIR) TO THE SOUTHEAST - CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT COULD
UNZIPPER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND
MECHANICAL LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT LIFT PARCELS INTO THE UNSTABLE
AIR A LOFT. CONVECTION COULD BE RATHER EXPLOSIVE ONCE IT SPARKS -
AND THE RADAR COULD "LIGHT UP" WITHIN 1/2-1 HOUR. A SCENARIO THE
HRRR FAVORS.
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND WHERE IS A QUESTION THAT DOESN'T HAVE A
CLEAR ANSWER. LATEST HRRR/RAP BLOSSOM STORMS AT MID AFTERNOON (2-
4PM), EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. MANY (MOST?) OF THE CAMS
ALSO CURRENTLY FAVORING NORTH/EAST OF I-94 FOR THE STRONGER-SEVERE
STORMS...IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES AT ITS CURRENT PROGGED PACE. THAT
SAID, A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK TO LIE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LOCALLY FOCUSED FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING LOCALLY. "FATTER" CAPE PROFILE/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEND
THEMSELVES TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WITH SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF A
DAMAGING WIND RISK (35-40KTS 0-3KM). TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PERHAPS MORE IN THE SUPER-CELL MODE RATHER THAN QLCS (LOCALLY).
EXPECT SOME REVISION TO LOCATION/TIMING/EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.
-NEXT WEEK: THE EPS AND GEFS PRESENT A BUSY, FAST MOVING WEATHER
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WEEK. GONE IS THE SEVERAL DAYS/WEEK
OF RIDGE DOMINANT IMPACTS (WARM-LOW HUMIDITY-MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS).
INSTEAD, THIS SCENARIO PAINTS A TROUGH-RIDGE, TROUGH-RIDGE PICTURE,
WITH EACH OF THE FEATURES INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
WHILE THE MODELS SUFFER FROM SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION
WITH THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS (NOT UNEXPECTED), SHOWER-STORM
CHANCES WILL BE MORE COMMON WITH TEMPS MOSTLY HOVERING NEAR THE
SEASONABLE NORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
METAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 14.06Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHOW A LONE AREA OF OVC VFR CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A VERY SLOW WESTERLY WHILE WEAKENING
PROGRESSION HAS BEEN WITNESSED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
AS OF 14.0545Z, SOME QUICK POP UP PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN
OVER HOUSTON INTO ALLAMAKEE COUNTY ON RADAR IMAGERY. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OR PERSIST.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS TUESDAY. DAYTIME
CUMULUS REACH FARTHER HEIGHTS IN SPOTS PROVIDING SPORADIC
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WHERE THESE
SCATTERED STORMS DO MANAGE TO CONTINUE RISING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY HIGHER, ALBEIT LOW, CHANCES PRIMARILY RESIDE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THEREFORE, HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR TSRA AT KLSE TAF WITH PROB30 WHILE
SMALLER AIRPORTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN (E.G., KMDZ) WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STORMS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION.....JAR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page