578
FXUS63 KARX 151927
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
227 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL
(POSSIBLY IN THE EXCESS OF 2.5" IN DIAMETER), TORNADOES, AND
DAMAGING WINDS (60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS) ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- 35 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS (60-90% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS OF
45 MPH OR GREATER WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER) ON FRIDAY. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AT 2 PM, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 35 AND WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 94. THERE WAS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST BACK TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA/WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM THE MVFR DECK OF
CLOUDS IS STARTING TO BREAK-UP. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOWER AND MID-80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID-60S. THIS IS RESULTING IN SURFACE-BASED CAPES OF 2500-3500
J/KG. 900-600 MB LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 9 C/KM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT SHEAR, SO WE HAVE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CIN
HAS ERODED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA, AND
IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 3 PM.
STILL SEE A VARIETY OF RUN TO RUN SOLUTIONS ON WHEN THE STORMS
WILL START TO FORM. FOR EXAMPLE THE HRRR WAS SHOWING THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING.
IT HAS NOW TRENDED WEST OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA JUST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35.
SOUNDINGS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE A BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL THAN THOSE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE NCAPES ARE MUCH GREATER. HAIL WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN A HALF HOUR TO HOUR AFTER SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF
HAIL GREATER THAN 2.5" IN DIAMETER IN WISCONSIN.
THE BETTER 0-1 KM HELICITY LOOK TO BE FROM EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THESE AREAS HAVE A HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS A
RESULT, A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM FOR PART OF
THIS AREA. PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
THE SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE TIME TO MATURE AND WHERE THERE
DISCRETE, SOUTHERN SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO
INGEST UNIMPEDED INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. THIS AREA
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER TORNADOES.
WITH DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG, DRY AIR ALOFT, AND 40-50 KNOT
WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
A CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW, THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MEAN SURFACE CAPES CLIMB UP TO 1000
J/KG. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING, THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP SURFACE TO 800 MB (LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM). SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH. THE LREF HAS A
PROBABILITY OF 60-90% THAT THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE 45 MPH OR
GREATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY
NEEDED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NORTH OF THIS LOW THERE IS A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAINFALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A SWATH OF HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE RST
TERMINAL WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
STORMS HAVE STARTED TO FORM ALONG THE ARCING COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR
AREA BECOMING UNCAPPED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR THESE STORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RST TEMPO BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH VEERING MORE
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME LLWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT FINE TUNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
START TO IMPACT THE RST TERMINAL LATE IN THE PERIOD SO HAVE
ADDED IN A PROB30 FOR THIS TIMEFRAME BUT INCREASED CONFIDENCE
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE MAY WARRANT CHANGING THAT TO A PREVAILING
GROUP WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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