450
FXUS63 KARX 162018
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
- MORE RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST TOTALS
(1-1.5 INCHES) ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN NORTHEAST
IOWA, THERE IS A 20-45% CHANCE THAT THE RAIN MAY EXCEED 2
INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA EAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY (500-1500
J/KG) EAST OF THE AREA, NOT ANTICIPATING MANY THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR AREA. IF THERE IS ONE, IT WOULD BE IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCUR,
THE ABILITY TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE, NORTH OF THIS LOW, THERE WILL BE A 500 MB RIDGE
LOCATED THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW. DRY EASTERLY WINDS
ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DISTINCT NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RAIN. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. WHILE
THIS WAS THE CASE, THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR HAS REMAINED STAY NEAR 1 INCH. AT THIS TIME, RAIN
TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A 0.5 TO 1 INCH NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. IN NORTHEAST IOWA,
THERE IS A 20-45% CHANCE THAT THE RAIN MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT AT THE TERMINALS. A BAND OF
SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL APPROACH
THE RST TERMINAL IN THE COMING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE GONE WITH
PREVAILING GROUPS AT THE TERMINALS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
RAIN, CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 21Z WITH IFR MOVING INTO THE RST
TERMINAL A LITTLE BEFORE 06Z. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PUT AN IFR PREVAILING GROUP FOR LSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A PROB30
FOR NOW. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH BETTER
CHANCES MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST,
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page