035
FXUS63 KARX 120534
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1234 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT MOSTLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-
90. SOME STRONG/SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
- MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN TURNS NORTHWARD THU/FRI, NOW MOSTLY NORTH OF I-
90. LIMITED (IF ANY) STRONG/SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME.
- TRAINING STORMS WILL FAVOR HIGHER TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW END AMOUNTS FROM 1/2" TO UPPER END AROUND 2".
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
-REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: CONVECTION, SPURRED BY AN RIPPLE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN...AND LOOKS TO START PRESSING INTO SE MN AT ITS CURRENT PACE BY
21-22Z. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THIS SMALL COMPLEX TO FEED ON AS
THE POOL OF CAPE IS HARBORED OVER IA, JUST SOUTH OF A WEST-EAST
RUNNING WARM FRONT THAT THE RAP PROGS TO HANG OUT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
FGEN ALONG WITH THAT SHORTWAVE (WHICH LAYS OUT ACROSS IT). ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO, BUT NOT
MUCH FOR WIND SHEAR (THAT LIES FARTHER NORTH). IN ADDITION, THERE
WILL BE SATURATION CHALLENGES. DRY NEAR SFC WANTS TO GET DRIER
THROUGH AFTERNOON MIXING. ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL WORK AGAINST THAT, BUT STILL VERY DRY IN A SUB CLOUD
LAYER, AND NOT VERY SATURATED ABOVE IT FOR THAT MATTER. CAMS DO GET
RATHER "PERKY" FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THE THE CONVECTION, AND
COULD SEE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. COULD BE CHALLENGE TO GET SEVERE
HAIL CONSIDERING THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CONVERSELY, INVERTED V-
SOUNDINGS WILL PROMOTE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AS PCPN EVAPORATES. SOME
STRONG-SEVERE RISK FOR NE IA/SW WI INTO LATE EVENING.
FOR THU/THU NIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/FAR NORTHERN WI. SOME OF THE SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CURRENT WARM FRONT COULD SHIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MIGHT BE AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS THAT COULD BE LINGERING WELL THROUGH THU MORNING. INSTEAD,
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WEST-EAST SFC BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI. THE LOW
LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MUCH STRONGER FOR THU EVENING,
FOCUSED IN THE NORTH, FEEDING THE SHORTWAVE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD RESULT, MORESO FOR THU NIGHT. SOME
OF THE CAMS HAVE STARTED TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE
LINGERING FRONT IN THE SOUTH BY EVENING. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE NORTH, BUT WILL COVER THIS SOUTHERN THREAT WITH LOWER
END CHANCES FOR NOW (20-30%). CAPE POOL STILL LIES WELL SOUTH AND
WILL MINIMIZE/NEGATE A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT.
FOR RAINFALL, THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACK LUSTER TONIGHT, WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS MOSTLY AROUND 3 KFT BUT PWS HOVER NEAR 1 1/2". OUTSIDE
OF THE WEST-EAST RUNNING BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE FOCUS AND REPEATED
ROUNDS OF PCPN OVER THE SAME AREAS, NOT A LOT GOING FOR A HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. KIND OF THE SAME FOR THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH
THE TRANSPORT IS BETTER. STILL REPEAT STORMS TO CONTEND WITH, BUT
NOT OVER THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE RAINFALL TONIGHT. ON THE
WHOLE, ANY FLOODING TYPE ISSUES LOOK MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN STREET
FLOODING - AT LEAST FOR NOW.
- WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: DECENT CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE EPS AND GEFS
FOR BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND, BUT FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL MOVING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. THE BULK OF BOTH MODELS' ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN INTO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN/RAIN
CHANCES. ALL WPC CLUSTERS FAVORS THIS OVERALL PATTERN TOO. HOWEVER,
CONSIDERING THAT THE WEEKEND RIDGE DOESN'T LOOK TOO "STOUT", BELIEVE
ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHING COULD SLIP ACROSS IT - IF ONE WOULD MANIFEST
(CONVECTIVE MCV FOR INSTANCE).
FOR TEMPS, THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
HOLD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION, WITH PROBABILITIES SUGGESTING HIGHS
AROUND THE SEASONABLE NORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
AS THE 850 MB FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 90, SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
12.08Z AND 12.11Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN COME TO AN END AS THIS 850 MB FRONT MOVES NORTH
TOWARD INTERSTATE 94.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST, THE
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKED LOWER FOR KLSE, SO
ONLY HAVE PROB30 FOR THEM.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
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