436
FXUS63 KARX 121829
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
130 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN FOCUS TURNS NORTHWARD TONIGHT, MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94. SMALLER
RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) CONTINUE SOUTH OF THERE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, REPEATING FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- A SMATTERING OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-40%), BUT
THERE WILL BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET. A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN (AKA, RAIN CHANCES) FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
- REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS
TURNS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI. THE LOW LEVEL
JET/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE SHORTWAVE, WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST ALONG AN ELEVATED 850 MB WEST-EAST RUNNING
FRONT OVER NORTHERN WI. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
BLOSSOM ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING, SPREADING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY, MOST OF THE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
NORTH OF I-94.
TO THE SOUTH, THE FRONT THAT SPARKED THE STORMS ACROSS IA YESTERDAY
IS STILL WAVERING FROM SOUTHERN MN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA.
INSTABILITY HAS POOLED SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND AS DAYTIME HEATING
PEAKS THE CAMS SUGGEST SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS COULD SPARK IN RESPONSE
TO THE LIFT/INSTABILITY. LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH, AND THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINALLY. WHATEVER STORM COULD GET GOING WOULD
LIKELY BE PULSY IN NATURE. A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL, ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.
-FRIDAY: PCPN WILL BE ONGOING TO THE NORTH AND LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE BETTER PART THE DAY (AGAIN, LOCALLY NORTH OF I-94). TO THE
SOUTH, THAT SAME SFC FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND, BUT WILL GET
SOME PUSH EAST AS A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SLIPS EAST ACROSS
MN. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
ANOTHER, BUT MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL BE MAKING SLOW
PROFESS EAST. SPIRAL BANDS ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE TROUGH CENTER
COULD SWING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GRAZE PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI. ITS A "MESS" WITH A HODGEPODGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS,
NOTHING STRONG, BUT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING (MOSTLY 20-40%).
- WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: BROAD RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT NOT STOUT AND DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A BARRIER TO
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/MCVS.
GEFS/EPS/NAM12 HAVE SUGGESTED MORE DRY THAN NOT FOR THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER - AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOVING INTO THE NEW WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FLATTEN AND BE MORE ZONAL IN ORIENTATION. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS,
MCVS, ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE MORE SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. THE SETUP IS RATHER MESSY, CHAOTIC IN NATURE AND THE
MODELS DON'T HAVE "CLEAR CUT" SCENARIOS TO LATCH ON TO. THIS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING FOR THE HIGHER END CHANCES, BUT MON-
WED CONTINUES TO FAVOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MORE
REFINEMENT TO THE EXPECTATIONS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
VFR CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SOME LIGHT, DECAYING
SHOWERS MOVING EAST IN THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR. LOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF I-94 AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT RST TO ACCOUNT FOR
POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE RST TERMINAL MUCH EARLIER AND FOR MUCH LONGER
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS PACKAGE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THEY LIFT TO
THE NORTH BUT WITH THESE TIMES WILL NEED TO BE HONED-IN OVER THE
COMING PACKAGES WITH UPDATED NEAR/SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL
STAY IN A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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