168
FXUS63 KARX 130022
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
722 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN FOCUS TURNS NORTHWARD TONIGHT, MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94. SMALLER
RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) CONTINUE SOUTH OF THERE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, REPEATING FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- A SMATTERING OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-40%), BUT
THERE WILL BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET. A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN (AKA, RAIN CHANCES) FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
- REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS
TURNS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI. THE LOW LEVEL
JET/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE SHORTWAVE, WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST ALONG AN ELEVATED 850 MB WEST-EAST RUNNING
FRONT OVER NORTHERN WI. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
BLOSSOM ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING, SPREADING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY, MOST OF THE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
NORTH OF I-94.
TO THE SOUTH, THE FRONT THAT SPARKED THE STORMS ACROSS IA YESTERDAY
IS STILL WAVERING FROM SOUTHERN MN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA.
INSTABILITY HAS POOLED SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND AS DAYTIME HEATING
PEAKS THE CAMS SUGGEST SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS COULD SPARK IN RESPONSE
TO THE LIFT/INSTABILITY. LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH, AND THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINALLY. WHATEVER STORM COULD GET GOING WOULD
LIKELY BE PULSY IN NATURE. A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL, ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.
-FRIDAY: PCPN WILL BE ONGOING TO THE NORTH AND LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE BETTER PART THE DAY (AGAIN, LOCALLY NORTH OF I-94). TO THE
SOUTH, THAT SAME SFC FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND, BUT WILL GET
SOME PUSH EAST AS A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SLIPS EAST ACROSS
MN. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
ANOTHER, BUT MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL BE MAKING SLOW
PROFESS EAST. SPIRAL BANDS ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE TROUGH CENTER
COULD SWING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GRAZE PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI. ITS A "MESS" WITH A HODGEPODGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS,
NOTHING STRONG, BUT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING (MOSTLY 20-40%).
- WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: BROAD RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT NOT STOUT AND DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A BARRIER TO
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/MCVS.
GEFS/EPS/NAM12 HAVE SUGGESTED MORE DRY THAN NOT FOR THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER - AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOVING INTO THE NEW WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FLATTEN AND BE MORE ZONAL IN ORIENTATION. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS,
MCVS, ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE MORE SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. THE SETUP IS RATHER MESSY, CHAOTIC IN NATURE AND THE
MODELS DON'T HAVE "CLEAR CUT" SCENARIOS TO LATCH ON TO. THIS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING FOR THE HIGHER END CHANCES, BUT MON-
WED CONTINUES TO FAVOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MORE
REFINEMENT TO THE EXPECTATIONS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
PRIMARY TAF CONCERN IS IMMEDIATE TERM STORMS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
KAUM. STORMS THAT HAVE EXHIBITED A SLIGHT NORTHERN PROGRESSION
HAVE EXHIBITED WEAKENING, AFFECTING KRST TAF SITE. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH VCTS. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS
COMBINED WITH WEAKENING TREND LIMITS OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN
PRIMARILY AFFECTING SITES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION...JAR
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