382
FXUS63 KARX 130801
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
301 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGE
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS TO BE LOW DUE TO WEAK 0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SKINNY
CAPES ALOFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT
DRY EASTERLY WINDS HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL, WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 35 THIS MORNING. THIS IS
DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS.
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON,
THE DEW POINTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S. IN ADDITION TO THIS SHORTWAVE, THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
THESE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHEAR AND SKINNY
CAPES, SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES LOOKS TO BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHILE THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION, THERE
WILL BE LIMITED CAPPING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPES,
SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE A LOW THREAT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE THE 0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.
HOWEVER, IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET ALOFT,
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THIS LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN DO TO QUESTIONS ON INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST HAS CAUSED A RAPID REDUCTION
IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAMS ARE SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE LACK OF CERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION, KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.
WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST BETWEEN
13.12Z AND 13.15Z, LEFT THEM IN THE 13.06Z TAF, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW SIDE THAT THEY WILL OCCUR.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
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