596
FXUS63 KARX 131745
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER-STORMS CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT A "WASHOUT" BY
ANY MEANS. SAT NIGHT MAY HARBOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-60%).
- ACTIVE START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORM
CHANCES. THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND COULD BE A WARM ONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
-WEEKEND: MESSY, HODGEPODGE OF MOSTLY SMALL SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS
(LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES, SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW, MCVS, ETC) WILL WORK WITH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHERE AND WHEN AREN'T FULLY
CLEAR, THANKS IN PART TO THE MESO/MICRO SCALE OF THE FORCERS, WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE THEY WILL SETUP/MOVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE LOCAL AREA WILL SEE PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ALSO
HIGH THAT ITS NOT GOING TO BE A "WASH OUT" EITHER. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE DRY PERIODS (FOR MOST) TOO.
DUE TO THE SMALLER NATURE OF MOST OF THE FORCING, THE MODEL BLEND
WILL "BROAD BRUSH" THE RAIN CHANCES (MOSTLY 20-50%). EXPECT SOME
FINE TUNING TO THOSE CHANCES, BUT THAT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN TIL 6 TO 12
HOURS OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT.
- NEW WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: GEFS AND EPS STILL ON TRACK TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK - WITH A
PROGRESSIVE, ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER. NO IMPEDIMENTS, EVEN MINOR, TO
SHORTWAVES TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION - AND THAT IS
WHAT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. BOTH OF THESE
ENSEMBLE SUITES KEY IN ON WED (AT THIS TIME) WITH A STRONGER, MORE
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING MORE ORGANIZATION TO ANY STORM
THREAT. A PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
MOVING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEW WEEK, SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE COULD BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS. WPC
CLUSTERS ALL HAVE THE RIDGE, BUT WITH DIFFERING STRENGTHS AND
POSITIONING OF THE AXIS. SO SOME CARE NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH
EXPECTATIONS. STILL, A LOT OF SUMMERY HEAT COULD/WOULD POOL UNDER
THAT RIDGE AND THE UPPER 10% OF THE EPS/GEFS WOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
THE RST TERMINAL LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL BE SCATTERED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DECK BECOMES MORE
BROKEN AROUND 12Z. TIMING ON THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
HONED-IN WITH FUTURE PACKAGE UPDATES. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT ACTIVITY LOOKS SCATTERED
ENOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR NOW.
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN
5-12 KTS BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION.....BARENDSE
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