607
FXUS63 KARX 140454
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER-STORMS CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT A "WASHOUT" BY
ANY MEANS. SAT NIGHT MAY HARBOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-60%).
- ACTIVE START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORM
CHANCES. THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND COULD BE A WARM ONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
-WEEKEND: MESSY, HODGEPODGE OF MOSTLY SMALL SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS
(LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES, SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW, MCVS, ETC) WILL WORK WITH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHERE AND WHEN AREN'T FULLY
CLEAR, THANKS IN PART TO THE MESO/MICRO SCALE OF THE FORCERS, WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE THEY WILL SETUP/MOVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE LOCAL AREA WILL SEE PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ALSO
HIGH THAT ITS NOT GOING TO BE A "WASH OUT" EITHER. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE DRY PERIODS (FOR MOST) TOO.
DUE TO THE SMALLER NATURE OF MOST OF THE FORCING, THE MODEL BLEND
WILL "BROAD BRUSH" THE RAIN CHANCES (MOSTLY 20-50%). EXPECT SOME
FINE TUNING TO THOSE CHANCES, BUT THAT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN TIL 6 TO 12
HOURS OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT.
- NEW WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: GEFS AND EPS STILL ON TRACK TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK - WITH A
PROGRESSIVE, ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER. NO IMPEDIMENTS, EVEN MINOR, TO
SHORTWAVES TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION - AND THAT IS
WHAT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. BOTH OF THESE
ENSEMBLE SUITES KEY IN ON WED (AT THIS TIME) WITH A STRONGER, MORE
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING MORE ORGANIZATION TO ANY STORM
THREAT. A PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
MOVING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEW WEEK, SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE COULD BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS. WPC
CLUSTERS ALL HAVE THE RIDGE, BUT WITH DIFFERING STRENGTHS AND
POSITIONING OF THE AXIS. SO SOME CARE NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH
EXPECTATIONS. STILL, A LOT OF SUMMERY HEAT COULD/WOULD POOL UNDER
THAT RIDGE AND THE UPPER 10% OF THE EPS/GEFS WOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IF WE HAVE LESS OF THESE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE HIGHER AND THERE WOULD BE LIKELY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. IF THERE ARE PLENTY MVFR CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE LOWER AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD
EITHER NOT FORM OR REMAIN ISOLATED. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY,
THE TAFS WERE KEPT DRY AND WE WILL MONITOR THE CLOUD TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
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