681
FXUS63 KARX 141104
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
PERIODICALLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT
TIMES. TIMING AND LOCATION STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MCS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
WYOMING. THE REMNANT MCV FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF IOWA
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF MID- AND UPPER 60 DEW POINTS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WILL RESULT IN SURFACE-
BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF
THE 850-750 MB CAP BETWEEN 14.21Z AND 14.22Z. THIS WILL PROMOTE
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A
3-HOUR WINDOW WHERE THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME STRONGER
STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SKINNY CAPES WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL IN THE 0.75 TO 1.5-INCH RANGE. WITH AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AND DCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG, THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40-60 MPH WIND GUSTS. AS THE COLD POOLS CONGEAL
QUICKLY, THIS LINE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL US. OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EITHER MONTANA OR THE DAKOTAS AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE IN THEIR
MATURE OR DISSIPATING STAGE, AND THEIR TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS ULTIMATELY WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
OUR AREA. IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES IMPACT THE AREA, IT WILL LIKELY
BE MORE DUE TO WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME, THINKING THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LIKELY EAST OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS, IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN ITS MATURE
STAGE AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE IN
THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE ENVELOPING PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING
TO LOW-VFR AT BOTH KLSE AND KRST. AS WE HEAD INTO AFTERNOON, A MCV
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH AN ATTENDING BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS
A RESULT, HAVE INCLUDE A PROB30 MENTION AT KRST FOR THIS POTENTIAL
FROM 21Z TO 00Z. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5-10 KTS, HOWEVER WINDS WILL TREND MORE VARIABLE AT KRST AS THE
MCV AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY PASSES NEAR THE TAF SITE LATER THIS
EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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