882
FXUS63 KARX 142307
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
607 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
PATTERN IS LOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH MULTIPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES CAUSING STORM CHANCES. SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
LOW UNTIL LATER MONDAY.
- MIDWEEK RAIN CHANCES AGAIN WITH A BIT OF COOLING AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH PRODUCING POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SEVERE STORM CHANCES REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY.
- LATE WEEK BRINGS A WARM UP, MORE HUMIDITY, AND STORM CHANCES.
THERE MAY BE SEVERE STORM CHANCES BUT IT IS STILL EARLY FOR
THOSE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY: BUILDING HEAT, STORM CHANCES, LOWER PREDICTABILITY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING AS A FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I 90 IN
SOUTHEAST MN TO AUSTIN TO EAST OF MASON CITY AND SOUTH AT 20Z.
SPC MESA INDICATES ABOUT 15000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BUT VERY
WEAK WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS. A BAND OF
THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR STORMS TO FIRE UP AND POTENTIALLY GET STRONG
ENOUGH, POSSIBLY PRODUCING UP TO 1" HAIL OR A WIND GUST TO 60 MP
MAINLY THROUGH 7PM. WITH THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT PRESENT,
THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS TO FORM DURING THE TIME.
AS COLD POOLS COME TOGETHER FROM THESE STORMS, THE RISK FOR
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, AND PERIPHERY OF SAID RIDGE THE AREA
IS UNDER, WILL KEEP US TRYING TO WARM, DESTABILIZE AND ALSO
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. THE MOST-
UNSTABLE CAPE GRADIENT SHOULD RUN ALONG AN ABERDEEN TO SWRN WI
LINE ROUGHLY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORCING IS WEAK
ALONG IT WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOWN AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS WEAK FORCING BUT SOME INSTABILITY MAINLY
WEST, HAVE DECIDED TO ANCHOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO WEST OF THE
RIVER, DECREASING NORTHEASTWARD. OVERNIGHT, THE CAMS ARE SPLIT
ON IF THE FORCING WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SO, HAVE KEPT THE CHANCES
MODEST, GENERALLY 50% OR LESS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL WI AREA LOOKS TO AGAIN BE ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHANCES THERE TOO. OTHER THAN AN
ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE, THE
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE GENERAL THUNDER, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR AND FORCING IN PLACE.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLIER MONDAY HAS THIS SAME PROFILE OF LOWER
PREDICTABILITY AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. HAVE
TRIED TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 50% WITH NO REAL CLEAR
TARGETS IN PLACE, WHILE NBM WOULD LIKE TO INCLUDE 70-80% RAIN
CHANCES DURING SOME PERIODS (SUNDAY AFTERNOON). WARMTH BUILDS IN
MONDAY AND BY LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MINNESOTA
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM SW->NE, WITH SOUTHEAST MN ON THE EAST
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STRONGER WIND SHEAR SEEMS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ISNT IDEAL LATER
MONDAY. THE AI/ML GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED FOR THE
SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE LATER MONDAY AND EVENING TIME FRAME WEST OF
HIGHWAY 63 ROUGHLY IN NERN IA AND SERN MN.
MIDWEEK COOLING AND MORE WIDESPREAD MORE LIKELY
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WITH A
WELL-AGREED UPON AND MORE PREDICTABLE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
WEATHER MOVING INTO THE AREA MIDWEEK. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH PROBABILITIES SUGGESTING THE TRACK IS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND RESULTANT DEFORMATION RAINS IN THE
AREA. SEVERE STORMS WOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS /SPC RISK = 15% JUST SOUTHEAST/, BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH. AI/ML FORECASTS HAVE THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTHEAST VS
THE SPC FORECAST.
WARMTH WITH STORM CHANCES LATE WEEK
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGHING EXITING EAST
AND RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK / WEEKEND. THIS
WOULD BRINGS UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY 90S INTO THE AREA DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL ALSO GOVERN THE LOCATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A CHALLENGING WEATHER PATTERN TO GET TO MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
BEYOND ABOUT 6 HOURS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING PROVIDING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE AREA,
SLOWLY MOVING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS ABOUT 3-4Z AT
KRST, 07-08Z AT KLSE. SOME INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK SHEAR MEANS
MORE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THAN THREATENING AFTER 03Z.
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS LOOK MORE CHALLENGING BUT THE GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT TSRA CHANCES SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A FRONT
PROVIDES NORTHEAST FLOW AND INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR LOW
CLOUDS. MVFR IS CURRENTLY ONLY TWO COUNTIES NORTH OF KLSE/KRST
AND THESE CELINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH COOLING, AND SURGE
SOUTH. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SUNDAY AND TSRA CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED AGAIN FOR PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
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