896
FXUS63 KARX 151755
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS WEEK. AS
TYPICAL, THE PREDICTABILITY IN THIS PATTERN IS LOW. AT THIS
TIME, THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES (2 OUT OF A 5 RISK)
LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY EVENING.
- MAYBE SOME RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SOME NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE CAMS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, THIS MAY KEEP THIS FRONT FROM SLIDING
BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS, MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY STAY JUST
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MANY OF THE CAMS CURRENTLY FAVOR
THIS SCENARIO.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, WESTERN MINNESOTA, NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN, SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA, SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, AND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST, THERE WILL BE A 50 KNOT
SPEED MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SPEED MAX WILL LENGTHEN THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTOR
(UP TO 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR) ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS
NEARLY STRAIGHTLINE HODOGRAPH WOULD FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ALL
POSSIBLE.
AS THEIR COLD POOLS COALESCE, THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO A LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SECONDARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR QLCS TORNADOES
AND HEAVY RAIN. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS A ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3 OUT OF 5) JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST AND A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) IN NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA, SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA,
AND WEST- CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELSEWHERE IN OUR AREA, THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THE
BETTER SHEAR IS LOCATED IN OUR AREA, THE BETTER INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHEAST INTO
KANSAS. DUE TO THIS, OUR AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ARE IN A SLIGHT
RISK.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE A MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN A DECAYING MODE THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEKEND
A STRONG 594 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. IT CONTINUES THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. IF THIS OCCURS, ANOMALOUS WARMTH WOULD BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE MID-80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO
MID-70S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. PLEASE
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCE COVERAGE INCREASES MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY EVENING. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOVE 3KFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THESE LOWERED CIGS
COME BACK EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO MID-70S. THE LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A FEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. BELOW ARE THE WARM LOW
RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
JUNE 21 (SATURDAY)
LA CROSSE WI 74F IN 1943
ROCHESTER MN 72F IN 1943
JUNE 22 (SUNDAY)
LA CROSSE WI 75F IN 1983
ROCHESTER MN 71F IN 1983
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...CECAVA
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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