223
FXUS63 KARX 282330
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES
(20-40%) WILL BE IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK LOW, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A PULSE
SEVERE STORM.
- A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS IF BOWING SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAYBE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL POSSIBLE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
A DYING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANT MCV MIGHT PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
28.20Z. WITH WEAK SHEAR, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM BASED ON
INSTABILITY OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG (WET MICROBURSTS).
TONIGHT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA, NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA, AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES, THIS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINEAR
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING AND INTO STRONGER
CAPPING, THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LINE AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME 30-50 MPH WIND
GUSTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. IF
THERE IS ANY SEVERE WEATHER, IT MIGHT BE ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES WHERE THE 850-700 MB WINDS AND LINE ORIENTATION COULD
FAVOR SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
EXPECTING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL BUILD TO AROUND
3K J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, INSTABILITY, AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA MAY RESULT IN
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
ALONG THE SHORTWAVE. WITH WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS ALOFT, THINKING IF SEVERE WEATHER HAPPENED TO DEVELOP THAT
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MONTANA, AND WYOMING. MEANWHILE FURTHER
EAST THERE IS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, BUT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FURTHER WEST OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE INITIALLY SUPERCELLULAR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THEIR COLD
POOLS COALESCE, A PROGRESSIVE FOWARD-MOVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AN MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD EITHER
THE MID- OR UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. WITH IT NOW BEING
FURTHER WEST, WE MAY SEE THESE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE REGION MORE
IN THEIR DECAYING MODE. AS IMPLIED EARLIER, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THEY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THIS LINE WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL BE AT SO HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30
GROUP FOR BOTH KLSE AND KRST. IF AN AREA IS UNDERNEATH A STORM,
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY
GOING TO BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THESE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH, WINDS MAY CHANGE DIRECTION AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...CECAVA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page