340  
FXUS63 KARX 011031  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
531 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- TERRIFIC TUESDAY  
 
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED, A COUPLE OF  
THESE DAYS COULD FEATURE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY APPEARING TO BE THE  
MORE PROBABLE CANDIDATES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
NICE, DRY WEATHER TODAY  
 
TODAY, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN  
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, 700/850MB RIDGE  
CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BUILD WITH RESULTING WARM  
TEMPERATURE ALOFT KEEPING A LID ON POTENTIAL CONVECTION EVEN AS AN  
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. PRECIP FREE, HIGHS IN THE 80S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW  
60S SHOULD LEAD TO A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS AND PERSISTS  
 
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AS  
SHORTWAVES EJECT DOWNSTREAM. LACK OF ROBUST MOIST ADVECTION  
SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR BOTH OF THESE  
DAYS, SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE 20-40 POPS IN NBM. POTENTIAL CONTINUES  
AS FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
FOLLOWING A SHORT LULL AS AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SLIDES EASTWARD.  
WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION RESUMING, EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD  
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH 50-70S POPS  
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE KEY DETAILS BEGIN TO DIFFER  
ACROSS GUIDANCE, ZONAL OR QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE  
MORE PROBABLE OUTCOME WITH LOW END (20-30%) MENTIONS OF PRECIP  
WARRANTED AS A RESULT.  
 
ON THE SUBJECT OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS, BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND  
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AM NOT EXPECTING HIGHER END RISKS OF  
EITHER FLAVOR. FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, 30.12Z LREF PROBABILITIES  
SUGGEST IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR BOTH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND  
SHEAR TO BE PRESENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY SEVERE STORMS - TOMORROW  
AND THURSDAY HAVE STRUGGLES WITH INSTABILITY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
HAVE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND THUS SUBOPTIMAL SHEAR, WHILE  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER INGREDIENT.  
30.12Z LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST  
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR WEDNESDAY  
WHILE LONGER RANGE ML GUIDANCE BASED ON BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS  
SUGGEST SATURDAY IS A DAY TO WATCH, PRESUMABLY LARGELY ON THE BASIS  
OF INSTABILITY (PLAYING MIX AND MATCH WITH GUIDANCE, BUT 30.12Z LREF  
HAS A 60% CHANCE TO SURPASS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE). IN ANY CASE, AT  
THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY BOTH OF THOSE  
DAYS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS. AS  
FOR HEAVY RAIN, WHILE PWATS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RETURN TO THE  
99TH PERCENTILE IN BOTH THE 30.12Z GEFS AND ECENS, PROGGED STORM  
MOTIONS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO DICEY DESPITE POTENTIAL  
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES. THUS, FLOOD RISKS AT THIS TIME WOULD FOCUS ON  
URBAN LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL  
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING, PICKING UP TO AROUND  
10 KTS AT THE TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED  
TO DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON  
AVIATION...BARENDSE  
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