608
FXUS63 KARX 240602
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
102 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE GROWING SEASON ENDS TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ADDED TO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
- STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER RAIN WILL OCCUR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT
17Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE, AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-29
CORRIDOR TO OUR WEST. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
LAKE ONTARIO, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED TODAY BUT, WITH
WEAKER WINDS PRESENT ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, PEAK GUSTS TODAY
HAVE ONLY BEEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH. MOVING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE,
ANOTHER DAY WITH MORE CLOUDINESS THAN NBM WOULD SUGGEST WITH
STRATOCUMULUS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTWARD 3/4TH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THAT SAID, OPTICAL THICKNESS OF TODAY'S CLOUDS IS A NOTABLE
STEP DOWNWARD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWNWARD JUST A HAIR AS A RESULT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED REDUCTION IN THICKNESS OF THE
CLOUDS, EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR MORE READILY AS SLOW BUT STEADY
DESCENT CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EASTWARD, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. PROVIDED SKIES DO
CLEAR, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH
LOCATIONS VERY LIKELY (80-100% PER 23.13Z NBM) TO DIP BELOW 32 AND
POTENTIALLY (35-95%) DROP TO 28 OR BELOW. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE DAYS
WITH TOUGH CONDITIONS FOR PLANTS, THIS SHOULD HERALD THE END OF THE
GROWING SEASON ACROSS ALL OR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 1028
MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT TODAY THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. UNLIKE YESTERDAY,
THERE IS MORE MORE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE ADDITION OF RAIN CHANCES (15 TO 24 PERCENT)
TO THE FORECAST. CONSIDERING THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE, THESE
RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TO BE RAISED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST AND HOW FAST A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST. THIS IMPACTS ON
WHEN AND IF RAIN WILL EVEN MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24.06Z TAF PERIOD. PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE CAUSES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, EVENTUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR LIMITS
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE AND AVIATION IMPACTS.
LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW IFR CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...JAR
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