437
FXUS63 KARX 241702
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING (20-40%).
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TODAY
A CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AREAWIDE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A 925-850HPA RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD BY THE LATE MORNING,
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING
A CLOSED 500HPA LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
MORNING, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. STRONG 700-500HPA QG
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD SPARK SOME MORNING
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTIES
SURROUNDING LOCATION AND SATURATION REMAIN.
THE 23.12Z LREF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE, BUT DIFFER WHEN IT COMES TO LOCATION.
THE EPS SOLUTION TRENDS THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA, FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GEFS WHICH TRENDS
NORTHEAST OVER WISCONSIN. THE EPS SCENARIO SUGGESTS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHEREAS THE GEFS SUGGESTS SHOWERS WOULD BE
AREAWIDE.
THE LOCATION DIFFERENCES ALSO AFFECTS OVERALL SATURATION GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WHILE RAP/HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED MID-LEVELS, THEY SUGGEST THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE,
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS DEPICTED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, SO CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST FOR THESE AREAS.
TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAVORABLE
FORCING AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES, GENERALLY 20-40%,
HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AS AMOUNTS OF 0.1" OR LESS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SIGNAL FOR AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5" IN 24.00Z HREF LPMM.
LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS MESSY SPLIT FLOW AT 500HPA IS
DEPICTED WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. 24.01Z NBM PROBABILITIES
HIGHLIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY
FOR A SHOT AT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (30-50%) WHEN THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE REGION, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER AROUND 5 TO
10 KTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A MID-LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS SHIFTS THROUGH BETWEEN 6-8000FT
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
CLOUDS AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. AS MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
30 TO 40% CHANCE OF HIGH-END MVFR, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I94 ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...JAW
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