463
FXUS63 KARX 241830
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
130 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS (30-60% CHANCE) MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
NOON ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW LOW-PROBABILITY SHOTS OF RAINFALL DOT THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK, BUT TRENDS ARE FAVORING DRIER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TONIGHT - SATURDAY: SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A STOUT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC VORT LOBE--
QUITE PROMINENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY--FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE IS MODEST AT BEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID, RAP/HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER IN THE
800-700-MB LAYER--100-MB-DEEP SATURATION COUPLED WITH BOTH
SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS BELOW STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES--TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THE TRANSIENT NATURE
OF THE FORCING AND SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD CEASE BY MIDDAY
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
WITH WARMER AIR RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN CONUS, TEMPERATURES
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60), BEFORE THE UPSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-50S FOR HIGHS BY
MIDWEEK.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK:
THE REGION RESIDES UNDER A QUASI SPLIT FLOW/RIDGING PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH THE MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGING AFTER MIDWEEK WITH HOW THIS PATTERN
EVOLVES. FROM AN OVERARCHING VIEW, SUCH A PATTERN LIMITS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. THE TOKEN 20-30
PERCENT POPS THAT GRACE THE NBM FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ARE THE RESULT THE ENSEMBLES STILL TRYING TO LATCH ONTO HOW FAR
EAST A CORRIDOR OF RAIN ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. THE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE LREF HAVE BEEN
FOR THIS RAIN BAND TO SET UP FARTHER AND FARTHER WEST, AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS DRY IN THE END.
CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW THE PATTERN SHAKES OUT, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH DISPERSION IN
THE MODELS AT THIS RANGE TO MAKE OUT MUCH FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER AROUND 5 TO
10 KTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A MID-LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS SHIFTS THROUGH BETWEEN 6-8000FT
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
CLOUDS AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. AS MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
30 TO 40% CHANCE OF HIGH-END MVFR, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I94 ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...JAW
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