070
FXUS63 KARX 250253
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
953 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS (30-60% CHANCE) MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
NOON ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW LOW-PROBABILITY SHOTS OF RAINFALL DOT THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK, BUT TRENDS ARE FAVORING DRIER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TONIGHT - SATURDAY: SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A STOUT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC VORT LOBE--
QUITE PROMINENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY--FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE IS MODEST AT BEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID, RAP/HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER IN THE
800-700-MB LAYER--100-MB-DEEP SATURATION COUPLED WITH BOTH
SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS BELOW STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES--TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THE TRANSIENT NATURE
OF THE FORCING AND SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD CEASE BY MIDDAY
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
WITH WARMER AIR RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN CONUS, TEMPERATURES
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60), BEFORE THE UPSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-50S FOR HIGHS BY
MIDWEEK.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK:
THE REGION RESIDES UNDER A QUASI SPLIT FLOW/RIDGING PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH THE MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGING AFTER MIDWEEK WITH HOW THIS PATTERN
EVOLVES. FROM AN OVERARCHING VIEW, SUCH A PATTERN LIMITS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. THE TOKEN 20-30
PERCENT POPS THAT GRACE THE NBM FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ARE THE RESULT THE ENSEMBLES STILL TRYING TO LATCH ONTO HOW FAR
EAST A CORRIDOR OF RAIN ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. THE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE LREF HAVE BEEN
FOR THIS RAIN BAND TO SET UP FARTHER AND FARTHER WEST, AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS DRY IN THE END.
CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW THE PATTERN SHAKES OUT, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH DISPERSION IN
THE MODELS AT THIS RANGE TO MAKE OUT MUCH FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WHILE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ONLY BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. HAVE THEREFORE
CARRIED DEFINITE RAIN WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR AT RST/LSE.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT OR AROUND 10 KFT ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND ARE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AS OF ISSUANCE TIME. THESE SHOULD
ARREST TEMPERATURE FALLS AND THUS PREVENT A RECURRENCE OF LAST
NIGHT'S VALLEY FOG.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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