848
FXUS63 KARX 260457
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1157 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS
REACH INTO THE LOW 60S.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARING MORE
LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL IMPACTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF 0.25" OF RAIN.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN TO START THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
REST OF THE WEEKEND: DRIER AND SUNNIER
OUR CURRENT DECAYING CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATTENDANT FORCING/UPPER WAVE DEPARTS THE
REGION AND SPLIT FLOW ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. THE CURRENT STRATUS
DECK THAT KEPT US COOL TODAY SLOWLY ERODES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHORTER-RANGE CAMS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THE CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN AND THERE IS
THE REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUDS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
SOUTHWEST OF I-94. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, ONGOING CLEARING
AND SMALLER T/TD SPREADS COUPLED WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS MAY
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG, BUT THIS MAY
STAY EAST OF A WAUSAU-WISCONSIN RAPIDS LINE.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG CONSENSUS THAT CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD WIGGLE OF THE UPSTREAM
HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW 60S--BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN STUNTS WITH THIS CLOUD
DECK.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR LATE MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
BROAD NEGATIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXPANDS EASTWARD
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A NW-TO-SE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDING EAST OF THE SIOUXLAND REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
(FURTHER EAST THAN THE GUIDANCE SHOWED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY).
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE NEAR SURFACE PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING, BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LEADING SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION STAYS UNDER SYNOPTIC TROUGHING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THIS TIME, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OF LOW
IMPACT, WITH ONLY A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER 0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE NEAR-SURFACE
TROUGH MAY PIVOT WEST OF THE RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN
LOW TAKES OVER--WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1/2 OF AN INCH (20-30% CHANCE AT ANY GIVEN
SPOT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER).
A PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF RIDGES PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN LIMITED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN BETWEEN THESE
RIDGES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN, IMPACTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
WITH WARMER AIR RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND PRIMARILY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE OCTOBER FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
NEARLY 50% OF THE INDIVIDUAL NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
DETERMINISTIC PROGS FAILING TO REACH 50 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO
SCATTERED STRATUS BETWEEN FL 040-070 CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
IOWA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE RST TERMINAL.
GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS BACK UP
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY HOLDING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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