395
FXUS63 KARX 270504
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1204 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM START TO THE NEW WEEK WITH HIGHS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON MONDAY.
- INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WHERE THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 1/2 OF AN
INCH.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 50S TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
DRY AND WARM INTO MONDAY
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE REGION ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN DOES
NOT FULLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY, KEEPING
PLEASANT WEATHER (HIGHS NEARING 60 IN SPOTS) ON THE DOCKET TO
START THE WEEK.
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEGATIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BROAD SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDING
EAST OF THE SIOUXLAND REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL ZONE
STALLS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND PIVOTS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A RED RIVER VALLEY LOW LIFTS NORTH AND A OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LOW TAKES OVER SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS COMING INTO CLEARER FOCUS, THERE
REMAINS MODEST UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ADVANCES BEFORE IT STALLS. THIS WILL DICTATE THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH
THERE BEING SOME INDICATIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS OF A
SHARP CUTOFF IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%)
IN THERE BEING RAIN WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
(50-70%) BETWEEN I-35 AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS THAT IT IS A
MATTER OF WHERE, NOT IF, THIS AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DEVELOPS WITH MANY MEMBERS PRINTING OUT BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF
RAIN WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE QPF
GUIDANCE, THE MEAN LREF 1-INCH RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE SKEWED
LOWER THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT (10-20%), BUT 1 INCH OF RAIN IS A
REALISTIC POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW LOCALES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE LONG
DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER 24-36 HOURS VERSUS HIGH
RAINFALL RATES, THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
THE RAIN AND CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WILL COOL OFF TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER MAY BE STUCK IN THE 40S ALL DAY (50-70% CHANCE).
OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, MAINLY DOMINATED BY DECAYING RIDGES INTERSPERSED WITH
A FEW VORT LOBES/TROUGHS. OVERALL RAINFALL IMPACTS LOOK QUITE
LOW IN THIS SETUP, BUT CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER FROM
LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STEADILY COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 20-25 KTS IN UNSHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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