242
FXUS63 KARX 270843
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM START TO THE NEW WEEK WITH HIGHS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON MONDAY.
- INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WHERE THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 1/2 OF AN
INCH.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
TODAY: WARM AND DRY
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER MILD AIR INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES GIVEN THE
NBM'S RECENT COLD BIAS BUT OTHERWISE AN OVERALL PLEASANT MONDAY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY: RAIN CHANCES RETURN
A STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS CREATING A
BROAD, NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO THE
HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED TO BE PINCHED OFF BETWEEN THE ROCKIES
TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. AS THE
RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF, A NEW UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST, LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE REMAINS
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HREF MEMBERS ARE TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ULTIMATELY STALLS OUT AND THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT THE
EASTERN REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENT BEST GUESSES
HAVE THE FRONT AROUND THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE IT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS TO PIVOT LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY,
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO COME TO AN
END DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS EVEN MORE APPARENT LOOKING AT
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH VALUES EAST OF THE RIVER
GENERALLY BELOW 0.5 INCHES AND AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER HOVERING
BETWEEN 0.5-0.9 INCHES. THE RAIN SHOWERS ALSO LOOK TO BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH 27.00 RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE REGION. AS
SUCH, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING PARTICULARLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
OVERALL DETERMINISTIC QPF TOTALS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 0.3-0.9
INCH RANGE WEST OF THE RIVER AND LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH EAST
OF THE RIVER AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
27.01 NBM PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OR GREATER REMAIN IN THE
20-50 PERCENT RANGE WEST OF THE RIVER, WHICH IS NOTABLY HIGHER
THAN THE 10-20 PERCENT WITH THE 27.00 LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE (EFS,
GEFS, GEPS). THE LREF HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AREAS WEST OF THE
RIVER SEEING 0.5 INCHES OR GREATER (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF US-63) WITH PROBABILITIES AROUND 30-50 PERCENT (NBM IS AROUND
40-70 PERCENT FOR THE SAME AREA) SO CURRENT THINKING IS TOTALS
WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA. AS WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE TIMEFRAME
OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FULLY DEPICTING THE EVENT, THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE EARLY INDICATIONS OF A DECENTLY SHARP CUTOFF IN
QPF TOTALS EAST OF THE RIVER IN WISCONSIN. CURRENT BLENDED
GUIDANCE SOFTENS THIS A BIT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS
SHARP GRADIENT COMES TO FRUITION.
THURSDAY - NEXT WEEKEND: COOL AND DREARY
EVEN WITH THE LOW DROPPING OUT THE AREA, ITS STORY ISN'T
COMPLETELY OVER JUST YET. IT IS EXPECTED TO CYCLE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BEFORE PIVOTING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
(THURSDAY/FRIDAY) IN AN ATTEMPT TO REJOIN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. IT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED BY THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING OUR AREA SOLIDLY IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NICE AND COOL IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW STICKING AROUND, WE COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LOW END RAIN CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES AND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KTS IN UNSHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN
AND NORTHEAST IA. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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