218
FXUS63 KARX 280838
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
338 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WESTWARD TREND IN RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH SHOWERS
GRADUALLY FILLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN HIGHEST WEST OF THE RIVER WITH OUR
WISCONSIN COUNTIES STAYING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
- COOLING OFF THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 BY SATURDAY.
- DRIER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TODAY - TONIGHT: RAIN CHANCES RETURN
A STOUT OMEGA BLOCK HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC. TO ITS WEST IS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND SUBSEQUENT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TO ITS EAST, A HIGHLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US. AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO RUT INTO THE
BLOCKING PATTERN, THE TROUGHS WILL WORK TO EFFECTIVELY PINCH OFF THE
OMEGA BLOCK WITH A NEW UPPER LOW FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE PROMPTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE
DAKOTAS WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DEEP INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO FOLLOW SUITE, CAUSING THE
COLD FRONT TO BECOME MORE STATIONARY IN NATURE AND STALL OUT.
LATEST 28.00 HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE WESTWARD TREND AS TO
WHERE THIS STALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY TODAY, SHIFTING IT
FURTHER INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THIS TREND FURTHER TO THE WEST IS ALSO REFLECTED IN POPS AND
SUBSEQUENT QPF AND IS LIKELY DUE TO MODELS UNDERDOING THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR IS STILL IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE
WE ARE EXPECTING A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
IT LOOKS TO BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR MOST OF OUR WISCONSIN
COUNTIES AS BY THEN, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALREADY TO PIVOTING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST, TAKING ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH IT. AS SUCH, QPF
AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER HAVE COME DOWN EVEN
MORE WITH LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN LOOKING TO STAY BELOW 0.10 OF
AN INCH. IN FACT, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIVER WILL LIKELY
SEE NOTHING IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. WEST OF THE
RIVER, TOTALS ARE HIGHER BUT HAVE ALSO COME DOWN A BIT FROM
EARLIER FORECASTS GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAIN. 28.01 NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR GREATER
RANGE FROM 20% RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER TO NEAR 70% WEST OF US-63.
27.12 LREF PROBABILITIES FOR THE SAME PARAMETER ARE A LITTLE
LESS EXCITED (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW) WITH A
20-50% CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN
IOWA. UPPING THE PARAMETER TO 0.75 INCHES BRINGS PROBABILITIES
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY (LESS THAN 30%) SO THE BEST GUESS FOR QPF
TOTALS WEST OF THE RIVER GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.75
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. AS THE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS OUT AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DO SO,
CHANGES IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME TO OCCURRENCE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOST PLACES SHOULD BE DRY BY THE TIME
WE REACH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY - THE WEEKEND: COOLING OFF WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END EARLY IN THE DAY, SKIES FOR
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED AND OVERALL PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE THE LOW TO
MID 50S. UNFORTUNATELY, THE STORY ISN'T TOTALLY OVER WITH THE LOW
FROM EARLIER. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, PUTTING OUR AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO REJOIN THE MAIN
FLOW, ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND TROUGHING REGIME WILL BE PULLED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. CURRENTLY POORLY RESOLVED SHORTWAVES
COULD POTENTIALLY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CREATE SOME SHOWER CHANCES.
THE ONE MAIN HINDRANCE WILL BE AN OVERALL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE COMPLEX EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE NBM POPS AS
IS FOR NOW THOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN A
COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK WITH MOST PLACES STAYING IN THE MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BEING THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SHRA
MENTION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS MUCH
OF THE CAMS STRUGGLE TO PUSH PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE
EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS PAST 00Z
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30-60%)
IN THE RECENT HREF HOWEVER, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AT AROUND 8-12
KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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