276
FXUS63 KARX 300447
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING COOLER AFTER TODAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS (10 TO 30%) FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY:
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS STILL HANGING AROUND, LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING, SWITCHING OUR WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER, YET STILL NEAR NORMAL, TEMPERATURES AS
CLOUD COVER INCREASES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10%) OF A SHOWER MOVING AS WE ARE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TRENDING COOLER WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMETIME
LATER FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM HEADING DUE
SOUTHWEST TO HEADING EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THESE
TROUGHS WILL BRING COOLER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING OUR
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S TO MAYBE HITTING 50 DEGREES. WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY
HAVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE (10 TO 25%) COMPARED TO SATURDAY (10
TO 15%).
RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK:
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND IN ITS WAKE,
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE RAIN CHANCES HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN HAVING THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, A 15 TO 30 % FOR RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOCUSED IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AFTER MONDAY, ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT, GETTING CLOSER TO BEING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON IF OUR AREA
WILL BE MORE UNDER THE RIDGE OR CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. EACH OF THE
FOUR ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST BY MIDWEEK, HOWEVER
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE RIDGE'S STRENGTH AND POSITION. EACH OF
THE CLUSTERS HAS OUR FORECAST AREA RIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS
OVER OR CLOSE BY THE REGION. THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
NORTH AND NOT IN THE CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
CIGS: INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARD 12Z WED.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RIBBON OF MVFR/IFR THAT
COULD SPREAD ACROSS KRST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WILL ADD A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO START - ADJUST AS TRENDS
DICTATE.
WX/VSBY: HREF IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPING A SWATH OF FOG FROM SOUTHERN MN
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. UPWARDS OF A 60% SHOT FOR
SUB 1SM IN THIS BAND. CURRENTLY, HREF HOLDS THIS JUST WEST OF KRST
BUT HAS 30% PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR VSBYS AT THE AIRPORT. MEANWHILE,
THE SREF IS NOT NEARLY AS ENTHUSIASTIC, KEEPING THE GREATER THREAT
FOR FOG OVER NORTHERN WI.
HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST MOVE IN WILL BE A FACTOR.
IN ADDITION, RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP. WHETHER THAT WOULD
IMPACT KLSE IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY WORKS
AGAINST FOG SPREADING ONTO THE AIRPORT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR PCPN CHANCES, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT (10%) FOR ISOLATED
-SHRA TO SPARK THU AFTERNOON. NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN POTENTIAL OR AREAL
COVERAGE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
-SHRAS LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET ON FRIDAY WITH SPIRALING BANDS OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, SFC FRONT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CALL COME INTO PLAY.
WINDS; LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THU BUT STILL
EXPECTED TO HOLD UNDER 10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...RIECK
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