320
FXUS63 KARX 300827
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
327 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING COOLER AFTER TODAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS (10 TO 30%) FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
TODAY - TONIGHT: MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT TODAY AS OUR
AREA SITS BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS: ONE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS LOWER
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHOULD WORK TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
FROM THE CANADIAN LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF THIS LEAD WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME WEAK
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. IT WILL HAVE
SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO CONTEND WITH BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF QPF BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. TEMPERATURE
WISE, HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BUT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY: PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALMOST
BECOMING CUTOFF. THIS WILL EXTEND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE
SURFACE SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST, OVERALL MID LEVEL
SYNOPTICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE GENERAL LACK FOR
LOW-LEVEL FORCING. OVERALL MOISTURE WON'T BE FANTASTIC BUT
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE LOW
TO WORK WITH TO CREATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND HIGHLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE MEANING MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. WITH THE 29.00 HREF MEMBERS ALL SHOWING SOME DEGREE OF RAIN
CHANCES, HAVE DEVIATED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM FORECAST AS THE
NBM IS NOTORIOUS FOR UNDERDOING POPS IN LOW QPF EVENTS. AS SUCH,
HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM EARLIER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE
BROADBRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 18Z SATURDAY. INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL INCREASE COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50
DEGREE THRESHOLD AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES, 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS AT RST/MDZ
ARE SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE WARM LAYER
AND FULLY SATURATED DGZ. ANY CHANCES FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT QPF
ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO COME TO AN
END BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY - MID-NEXT WEEK: RAIN EARLY, TRENDING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER
BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SLID THROUGH OUR AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LARGELY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE'LL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS, THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN EARLY IN THE DAY.
WITH THIS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, LARGELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 29.12Z CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A GENERAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS RIDGE
PROGRESSES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF A TROUGHING REGIME TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. WHILE THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LARGELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ANY MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE AREA AS ROGUE SHORTWAVES COULD TRAVERSE
OVERHEAD. IN ANY CASE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
PLEASANT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
CIGS: INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARD 12Z WED.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RIBBON OF MVFR/IFR THAT
COULD SPREAD ACROSS KRST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WILL ADD A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO START - ADJUST AS TRENDS
DICTATE.
WX/VSBY: HREF IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPING A SWATH OF FOG FROM SOUTHERN MN
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. UPWARDS OF A 60% SHOT FOR
SUB 1SM IN THIS BAND. CURRENTLY, HREF HOLDS THIS JUST WEST OF KRST
BUT HAS 30% PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR VSBYS AT THE AIRPORT. MEANWHILE,
THE SREF IS NOT NEARLY AS ENTHUSIASTIC, KEEPING THE GREATER THREAT
FOR FOG OVER NORTHERN WI.
HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST MOVE IN WILL BE A FACTOR.
IN ADDITION, RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP. WHETHER THAT WOULD
IMPACT KLSE IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY WORKS
AGAINST FOG SPREADING ONTO THE AIRPORT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR PCPN CHANCES, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT (10%) FOR ISOLATED
-SHRA TO SPARK THU AFTERNOON. NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN POTENTIAL OR AREAL
COVERAGE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
-SHRAS LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET ON FRIDAY WITH SPIRALING BANDS OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, SFC FRONT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CALL COME INTO PLAY.
WINDS; LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THU BUT STILL
EXPECTED TO HOLD UNDER 10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...RIECK
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