330
FXUS63 KARX 302231
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS (15 TO 40%) FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY: PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY, THIS WAVE MAY HELP TO
SET OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
HAVE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED FOR RAIN AMOUNTS (MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OR SO). AS
CLOUD COVER LINGERS TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
YESTERDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
BY FRIDAY, A UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BRINING COOLER AIR WITH IT. THE LATEST LREF HAS A -2 TO -5C SPREAD
FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
THE LOW OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR BOTH DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS, AS WELL AS THE
SATURATED DGZ, SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH ANY SHOWER, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTH OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
MINIMAL QPF IS ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY: RAIN CHANCES EARLY, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AFTER
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH. THE
FIRST ONE MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY WITH ENSEMBLES HINTING
AT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL WARM UP COMPARED TO THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME 60S EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
CIGS: MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MESO MODELS
MOSTLY FAVOR VFR THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED. HOWEVER, SAME MODELS
HINT THAT MVFR CIGS COULD BE DEVELOPING IN THIS CLEAR SLOT BY 12Z.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN BY FRI RAFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE LOWER CIGS COULD HOLD INTO SAT.
WX/VSBY: SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WORK ON THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION. SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY POSSIBLE.
WINDS: LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PICKING UP A BIT (AROUND 10
KTS) BY FRI AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION.....RIECK
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