250
FXUS63 KARX 150501
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS (20 TO 30%) NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (30 TO 60%) FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA TODAY. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH 25 TO 35 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850MB. WITH
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE OVERPERFORMING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. KRST
ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH TODAY OF 68 DEGREES
THAT WAS SET IN 1990! KLSE'S RECORD HIGH IS 71 DEGREES AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE OVERPERFORMING, THIS TEMPERATURES IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MET TODAY. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 70S!
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT HERE TO STAY UNFORTUNATELY AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY AS WELL AS A BRIEF SHOT OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (20 TO 30%), MAINLY NORTH OF I-94, HOWEVER A
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS SOUTH TOWARDS I-90.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE IN HE LOT TO MID 50S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94, THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS, WITH SOME LOW 60S IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA.
SUNDAY-FRIDAY: PRECIPITATION CHANCES?, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH
MIDWEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SOMETHING TO NOTE IS THAT THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED
FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, BRINGING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR CWA. CURRENT NBM POP
FORECAST LARGELY HAS A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 WHICH HAS VALUES CLOSER TO
20 TO 40%. TIMING FOR THIS WAVE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS BEING BELOW FREEZING AS THIS WOULD MEAN SNOW WOULD BE FALLING
INSTEAD OF RAIN IF THIS WERE TO FALL DURING THE DAY. IF ANY SNOW
FALLS, THEN ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF SNOW GREATER THAN 0.1"
(MEASURABLE SNOW), WHICH HAS A 30 TO 40% CHANCE MAINLY OR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC DATA ARE THEN
BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS
THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LATER NEXT WEEK
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPOROACHING COLD
FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50KTS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF LLWS
OVERNIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
WHILE FLATTER AND MORE ELEVATED AREAS SHOULD SEE THESE STRONG WINDS
REALIZED AS LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE, ALTHOUGH LLWS IS STILL A THREAT IF
SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 20-
30KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE CURRENT MID TO HIGH
CEILINGS CLEARING WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW POTENTIAL (10-
30%) FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-94 AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THE LARGE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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