901
FXUS63 KARX 150613
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THEN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS (UP TO 20%) NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29
THIS MORNING.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (30 TO 60%) FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, IT
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND DRIER AIR MASS, SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL BE IN THE
60S. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
MID-60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID-40S IN MIED-NOVEMBER.
SUNDAY
WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
ON SUNDAY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (LESS
THAN 10 MPH). THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER AND MID-40S.
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
THEIR TRACKS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
86% OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE HAS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND FROM A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER AREA. THE
REMAINING 14% OF THE MEMBERS HAVE STRONGER SURFACE LOW WHICH
RESULTS IN THE AVERAGE OF THOSE MODELS BEING UP TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
AT TIMES. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM. A FEW OF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 SHOW A LOSS OF ICE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURRED,
THERE WOULD BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE WAS FAR TOO
LOW TO ADD THIS TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50KTS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF
LLWS OVERNIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS WHILE FLATTER AND MORE ELEVATED AREAS SHOULD SEE THESE
STRONG WINDS REALIZED AS LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE, ALTHOUGH LLWS IS
STILL A THREAT IF SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DIMINISH. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 20- 30KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE CURRENT MID TO HIGH CEILINGS CLEARING WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW POTENTIAL (10- 30%) FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94 AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THE LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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