745
FXUS63 KARX 170436
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1030 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT)
THIS AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE (5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH).
- RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE (30 TO 90%) FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
- ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
TODAY - TONIGHT: DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, FILTERING IN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS (SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
LESS THAN 0.25 IN). DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR RHS TO FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
WHEN IT COMES TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
ONLY LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN REPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 15-
20 MPH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO AT LEAST LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. LOWS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
MONDAY - TUESDAY: MIXED WINTER PRECIP
AN UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST WITH A SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY, STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. JUST HOW FAR TO OUR SOUTH HAS
REMAINED A POINT OF CONTENTION AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH THE EC
MEMBERS FAVORING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, KEEPING WARMER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GFS HAS LEANED MORE SOUTHERLY IN ITS TRACK AND HENCE
COOLER ACROSS OUR AREA. NOW THAT WE'RE STARTING TO ENTER HI-RES
TERRITORY, THE 12Z NAM/RAP SEEM TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
ITS COOLER SOLUTION, MEANING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS START TO SATURATE. PRECIP
SHOULD START OFF AS ALL RAIN WITH HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE
40S. THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN. 12Z NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND 0
DEG C EXTENDING INTO THE MID LEVELS. WITH SIGNIFICANT FORCING FROM A
DEVELOPING FGEN BAND ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND A LARGELY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, A HEAVY
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH TEMPERATURES HUGGING THAT 0 DEG
C ISOTHERM, SMALL NEAR TERM CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WE ULTIMATELY END
UP SEEING. SHOULD THE PRECIP TRANSITION TO SNOW, SLRS WILL BE QUITE
LOW IN THE 5-8:1 RANGE. IF IT TRANSITIONS MORE QUICKLY WITHIN THE
STOUT FGEN BAND, WE COULD SEE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS WITH 16.12
HREF SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES. GIVEN THE
TREND TOWARDS A COOLER SYSTEM HAVE LEANED HEAVIER INTO THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX RATHER THAN MOSTLY RAIN FORECAST FROM BEFORE. HAVE
ALSO UPPED SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE EXPECTED FGEN BAND GIVEN THE
CHANCE FOR HIGHER RATES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE NARROW
OVERALL SO IT'S LOCATION IS VERY LIKELY TO CHANGE. OVERALL, MANY
DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT OVER THE COMING 12-36
HOURS SO STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES.
WEDNESDAY - THE WEEKEND: RAIN LATE WEEK THEN DRYING OUT
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO STAY ALL RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FOR SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID
30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL SKY COVER. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z AS RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS
WITH INCREASING MVFR CIGS AS WELL. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER, GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS THIS
OCCURING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WHERE SOME ACCUMULATINGS SNOW IS LIKELY
IN THE LOCAL AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY (60-
80% CHANCE IN THE RECENT HREF) BE ACCOMPANIED WITH IFR/LIFR
REDUCTIONS WHERE SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 06-15Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND
5 KTS BEFORE INCREASING SOME WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO AROUND
5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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