564
FXUS63 KARX 170834
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MEASURABLE SNOW (POTENTIALLY 1-3 INCHES) LOOKING LIKELY NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY) IS LOOKING
FAR LESS LIKELY, SO TRANSITIONED THE FORECAST DRIER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
THE 17.00Z ENSEMBLES ARE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUNDINGS ALONG INTERSTATE 90 ARE SLIGHTLY COLD THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY INDICATING MORE OF A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG 800
TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. IN ADDITION, THE LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. THE 17.00Z HREF SHOWS A NARROW (1 TO 2 COUNTY WIDE)
2-4 INCH SNOW BAND ALONG INTERSTATE 90. THE PROBABILITY OF
MATCHED MEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
4-6 INCH AMOUNTS. HOURLY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY UP TO A
HALF-INCH. LOWERED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BY A DEGREE
AND THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TO 34 DEGREES. THIS RESULTED IN
A BAND OF 2-3 INCHES WHICH SEEMS RATHER REALISTIC CONSIDERING
THE FORCING AND THE DESI SNOW PROBABILITIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TRACK IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IT IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THIS NEW TRACK, THE AREA IS LOOKING DRIER,
SO TRENDED THE FORECAST THAT WAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL SKY COVER. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z AS RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS
WITH INCREASING MVFR CIGS AS WELL. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER, GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS THIS
OCCURRING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WHERE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY IN THE LOCAL AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY (60- 80% CHANCE IN THE RECENT HREF) BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
IFR/LIFR REDUCTIONS WHERE SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 06-15Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS BEFORE INCREASING SOME WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO AROUND 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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