303
FXUS63 KARX 171808
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MEASURABLE SNOW (POTENTIALLY 1-3 INCHES) LOOKING LIKELY NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY) IS LOOKING
FAR LESS LIKELY, SO TRANSITIONED THE FORECAST DRIER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
THE 17.00Z ENSEMBLES ARE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUNDINGS ALONG INTERSTATE 90 ARE SLIGHTLY COLD THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY INDICATING MORE OF A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG 800
TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. IN ADDITION, THE LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. THE 17.00Z HREF SHOWS A NARROW (1 TO 2 COUNTY WIDE)
2-4 INCH SNOW BAND ALONG INTERSTATE 90. THE PROBABILITY OF
MATCHED MEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
4-6 INCH AMOUNTS. HOURLY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY UP TO A
HALF-INCH. LOWERED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BY A DEGREE
AND THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TO 34 DEGREES. THIS RESULTED IN
A BAND OF 2-3 INCHES WHICH SEEMS RATHER REALISTIC CONSIDERING
THE FORCING AND THE DESI SNOW PROBABILITIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TRACK IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IT IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THIS NEW TRACK, THE AREA IS LOOKING DRIER,
SO TRENDED THE FORECAST THAT WAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TODAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-10KFT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10KTS
OR LESS. OVERNIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN A MESSY WINTER WEATHER
SCENARIO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFTER 06Z, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN THIS TRANSITION OCCURS IS LOW. ONCE
IT DOES OCCUR, SNOW/WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMSP
TO KSTE, ENDING WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE SAME
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW/WINTRY
MIX, BUT AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAY SEE LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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