449
FXUS63 KARX 200536
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1136 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
- POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK
COULD ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION. NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
TODAY-THURSDAY: DRIZZLE
DEEP LOW LEVEL SATURATION (LOWEST 3 TO 5KFT BASED ON HRRR AND RAP
SOUNDINGS) CAUSING LOW CLOUD DECKS, WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME,
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THIS LOW CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. BETWEEN NOW
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, A FEW RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CAN BE
SEEN BY LOOKING AT THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IN DIFFERENT MODELS.
THE TIMING FOR THESE RIPPLES IS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THESE LITTLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH, RAP AND HRRR
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LIFT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INDICATING THAT
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, DRIZZLE, COULD FALL. AS A RESULT HAVE
CONTINUED MENTIONING DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD. SOMETHING TO MONITOR IS
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING FOR TAYLOR
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING,
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS
TO ARE AGAINST IT SUCH AS NOT ENOUGH LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
ICE LARGELY REMAINS PRESENT IN THE COLUMN, HOWEVER THERE IS A
LITTLE BREAK THIS EVENING WHEN SOME ICE DOES THE COLUMN THAT
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT OUT, BUT
AGAIN, CAN'T RULE IT OUT. DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES.
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. A COUPLE OF WAVES DO MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BUT THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE ONLY A FEW MEMBERS
SUGGESTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A LITTLE MORE TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR BOTH DAYS.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A LOW COMES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION
FOR THIS LOW, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE EPS
MEMBERS (70 TO 80%) CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS, THE NUMBER OF
GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED TO
ROUGHLY 40%.
AFTER TUESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN, AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN COULD RETURN AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND, AS THIS PATTERN MAKES IT EASIER FOR SHORTWAVES TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ONE THING THAT MODELS
DO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMING
LATER NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE ALL SHOWING
COOLER AIR COMING DOWN WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN LOW-MVFR TO LIFR CIGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA,
SOUTHWEST WI, AND SOUTHEAST MN, HAVE NOTED SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF 1/4SM. WHILE THE 20.00Z HREF
MODEL WOULD GIVE A FAIRLY LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY FOR 1/4SM TO
REACH KRST, A QUICK DROP TO 1SM AT 20.06Z RESULTED IN INTRODUCTION
OF 1/2SM VISIBILITIES FOR 20.09Z. WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING
AND AMENDMENT.
OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL MIXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF SCATTERING
TO VFR IN THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR MODELS CAN OFTEN BE OPTIMISTIC ON CLEARING CIGS
TOO SOON SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL
BEGIN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR/NAYLOR
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