588
FXUS63 KARX 200909
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY - TONIGHT: DRIZZLE AND COOL
IT'S A DREARY MORNING OUT THERE WITH FOG, DRIZZLE, AND DENSE LOW
STRATUS BLANKETING MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO
SEEP NORTHWARD, LEADING TO DEEP LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO GET KNOCKED OUT UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT,
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA, MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SHIFTS
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER AIRMASS TO
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY IN, DRYING OUT THE PROFILE FROM THE MID-
LEVELS DOWN. EVEN THOUGH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, CLOUDS WON'T START TO SCATTER OUT
UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS SUCH, HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE NBM AS THE
CONTINUED STRATUS AND EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST.
FRIDAY - THE WEEKEND: DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES BUT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES DOWN INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WHILE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THE REST SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURES TO TODAY. THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN JUST AS BENIGN WITH WEAKLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY, EVEN AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY - THANKSGIVING: LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN, COOLING MID/LATE
WEEK
A CUTOFF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/BAJA PENINSULA AREA THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AROUND THE SAME TIME, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SORT OF ONE-TWO HIT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND THE NORTHERLY TROUGH/LOW BRINGING CONTINUED
CHANCES INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS NORTHERLY LOW
WILL PACK A LITTLE MORE OF A PUNCH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S, ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHERE
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA THANKS TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE WE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S LOOKING POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN LOW-MVFR TO LIFR CIGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA,
SOUTHWEST WI, AND SOUTHEAST MN, HAVE NOTED SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF 1/4SM. WHILE THE 20.00Z HREF
MODEL WOULD GIVE A FAIRLY LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY FOR 1/4SM TO
REACH KRST, A QUICK DROP TO 1SM AT 20.06Z RESULTED IN INTRODUCTION
OF 1/2SM VISIBILITIES FOR 20.09Z. WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING
AND AMENDMENT.
OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL MIXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF SCATTERING
TO VFR IN THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR MODELS CAN OFTEN BE OPTIMISTIC ON CLEARING CIGS
TOO SOON SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL
BEGIN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...JAR
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