635
FXUS63 KARX 201802
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY - TONIGHT: DRIZZLE AND COOL
IT'S A DREARY MORNING OUT THERE WITH FOG, DRIZZLE, AND DENSE LOW
STRATUS BLANKETING MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO
SEEP NORTHWARD, LEADING TO DEEP LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO GET KNOCKED OUT UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT,
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA, MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SHIFTS
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER AIRMASS TO
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY IN, DRYING OUT THE PROFILE FROM THE MID-
LEVELS DOWN. EVEN THOUGH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, CLOUDS WON'T START TO SCATTER OUT
UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS SUCH, HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE NBM AS THE
CONTINUED STRATUS AND EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST.
FRIDAY - THE WEEKEND: DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES BUT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES DOWN INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WHILE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THE REST SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURES TO TODAY. THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN JUST AS BENIGN WITH WEAKLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY, EVEN AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY - THANKSGIVING: LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN, COOLING MID/LATE
WEEK
A CUTOFF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/BAJA PENINSULA AREA THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AROUND THE SAME TIME, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SORT OF ONE-TWO HIT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND THE NORTHERLY TROUGH/LOW BRINGING CONTINUED
CHANCES INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS NORTHERLY LOW
WILL PACK A LITTLE MORE OF A PUNCH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S, ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHERE
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA THANKS TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE WE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S LOOKING POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE CURRENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO LOW MVFR/MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH REGARDING WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AS A SOLID MVFR
STRATUS DECK EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THIS LOW STRATUS DECK DISSIPATES THIS
AFTERNOON. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS COMES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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