844
FXUS63 KARX 110544
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY ONLY A
DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, BUT VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER SNOW.
- NEXT SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ROCHESTER,
MN TO ROCKFORD, IL. AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
(20-40%), HIGHEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS OF -25F TO -35F ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, FLURRIES
TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS A SUBTLE 700HPA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5C/KM
COINCIDING WITH THE DGZ CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE
DEPICTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SO CONFIDENCE
IN SNOW IS HIGHEST OVER THESE AREAS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY SNOWFALL TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH, BUT VISIBILITY WILL LIKLEY BE REDUCED WITHIN SNOWFALL,
AS LOW AS 1-2 MILES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS PER OBSERVATIONS
OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLIER TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ENDS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION
AROUND 9PM, ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THURSDAY
A 700HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH A BAND OF 850-700HPA
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST. OWING TO THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THE AXIS OF SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE 10.12Z GEFS/EPS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THIS AXIS DEVELOPS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM ROCHESTER, MN TO ROCKFORD, IL. 10.00Z LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A SOUTHWEST SOLUTION IS FAVORED BUT DOES SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST SHIFT AS ROUGHLY 25% OF THE 10.00Z
LREF MEMBERS INDICATING THIS OUTCOME OWING TO SOME NORTHEAST
OUTLIERS IN THE 10.06Z GEFS/EPS. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE
MEMBERS SUGGEST THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OCCURS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. REGARDING
AMOUNTS, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS OUR AREA,
WITH 10-30% FOR 3+" DEPICTED IN THE 10.12Z GEFS/EPS ASSUMING A
10:1 RATIO. WHEN ADJUSTED FOR EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS OF 15:1,
THESE PROBABILITIES WILL MORE LIKELY END UP AROUND 20-40%.
AS THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL (30-50%) ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE TO DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE
SPREAD OF THE 10.13Z NBM ON SATURDAY OWING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE, BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE 25TH-75TH
DURING THIS PERIOD. APPARENT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
DEPICTED BETWEEN -25F AND -35F BOTH MORNINGS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AREAS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE MVFR
CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THE MID
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVERAGE MAY NOT BE BKN OR OVC
IN THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY, HOWEVER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SNOW FILTER IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN HEIGHT TOWARDS THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD IN A SCT DECK AT KLSE AND KRST FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. BY THE TIME THE EVENING ROLLS AROUND, MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AGAIN. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL
FURTHER NORTH, HAVE LEFT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR BOTH KLSE AND
KRST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...CECAVA
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