773
FXUS63 KARX 121800
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1200 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 35 BELOW.
- PRIMARILY NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
THE 12.12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND IOWA ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND MAYBE
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS, THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CAMS. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND DRYNESS OF THIS AIR MASS, LEANING MORE
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS A RESULT, ONLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING
TO MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN; AND A DUSTING TO MAYBE 1-INCH IN NORTHEAST
IOWA. FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH, THERE WILL BE A 2 TO 4-INCH
BAND OF SNOW.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 15 BELOW AND WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 35 BELOW. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL
BE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND WEST-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS ARE AGREEMENT THAT THE COLDEST 925 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -21 TO -24C WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW WITH WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO
35 BELOW. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM 6 PM SATURDAY
THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY OCCURRING
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS ARE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
AMOUNT OF SATURATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS IMPACTS PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
ARCTIC AIR MIGHT GET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION, A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA BRINGING MVFR TO IFR VSBY REDUCTIONS ALONG WITH THEM AS THEY
QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS WESTERN
WI, HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT THE MOST
BEFORE SWITCHING TO SNOW AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES SATURATION
INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WORKS IN THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ALSO INCREASING DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR WIZ054-055-061.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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