736
FXUS63 KARX 240538
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT COLDER AIR LURKS ON THE HORIZON
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BY 20-25
DEGREES.
- POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES.
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE MAY
OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
RELATIVE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE WARM AIR MASS LARGELY REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. NBM
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S REMAINS HIGH WITH NBM
INTERQUARTILE RANGES OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE
THUS ELECTED TO KEEP NBM OUTPUT FOR TEMPERATURES, GOOD FOR HIGHS
AROUND 10 TO EVEN 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES DON'T LAST FOREVER AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR,
USHERING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE FAVORED (70-95%) TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT.
CHRISTMAS EVE MAINLY LIQUID DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
TOMORROW, WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTS DOWNSTREAM WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW LEVEL MOIST WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE
PLACE, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO PLACE MENTIONS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DEVELOPING WHILE LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS LAYER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD NEWS IS THAT, ASIDE FROM THE 23.12Z NAM,
MOST GUIDANCE HAS SURFACE AIR AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY PERMITTED
LIMITED MENTIONS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN WEST CENTRAL WI, WHERE
TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AS THE DRIZZLE FALLS. IN ANY
CASE, MOIST LAYER DEPTH IS MORE SHALLOW AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH, SO THE
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING IS LOW (15-20%).
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE LOOKS TO EJECT EASTWARD CHRISTMAS
INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS, A SEPARATE STRONG UPPER WAVE LOOKS
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP
SURFACE TEMPS IN OUR AREA NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AS THE CHRISTMAS WAVE TRANSLATES EASTWARD, LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AND THEN POTENTIALLY OVERRUN
THE COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 23.13Z NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A TRACE OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE GENERALLY AROUND 15% ALONG I-94, RISING AS ONE
MOVES NORTH TO NEAR 50% IN EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY. MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE THERMAL PROFILE
IN OUR NORTHEAST - GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SUPPORT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN - BUT OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT,
AS SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PATTERN
NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUES WITH THE 23.12Z CYCLE. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD FOCUS PRECIP GENERATION IN SW WI
EASTWARD, WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE JUST A BIT (~1 DEGREE
C) TOO WARM FOR FREEZING PRECIP WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY
FOCUS PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. IN SUMMARY,
WHILE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WOULD BE VERY LIKELY TO SEE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IF PRECIP OCCURS, OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
ANY PRECIP AT ALL IN THESE AREAS REMAINS AROUND 40-55%. FINALLY,
TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED TO BE LOW SHOULD THIS POTENTIAL BE
REALIZED, BUT ANY IS ENOUGH FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON UNTREATED ROADS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS LIES SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, TEASING AVIATION IMPACTS
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR-LIFR FOG REPORTED JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ABATES LOCAL IMMEDIATE FOG
CONCERNS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO COOL FURTHER
TOWARDS SATURATION TEMPERATURE.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE (70%)
FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS INITIALLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER CEILING REDUCTIONS
EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE
(BR/DZ). CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEAVES MENTION OUT OF KRST TAF DUE
TO THE LONGER FORECAST HOUR BUT WILL BE SUBSEQUENT DETAIL TO
MONITOR. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THE LONGER
FORECAST HOUR, PERSISTENT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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