229
FXUS63 KARX 242346
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
546 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.
- FREEZING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY (40-70%) NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE AMOUNTS FAVORED TO
BE LIGHT, ONLY A LITTLE BIT IS NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN COLDER
THAN NORMAL RETURNS THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOG EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WEAK LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE OBS AND INCREASING STRATUS, SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SOUTH
OF I-90. THAT SAID, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON AMOUNT AND
DURATION OF LIFT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT, WHILE INCREASING, HAVE DONE
SO AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
HAVE REDUCED THE PROBABILITY FOR DRIZZLE OVERALL AND SWITCHED FROM
COVERAGE TO UNCERTAINTY BASED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT ANY DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID UPON REACHING
THE SURFACE AS THE LONE HOLDOUT, THE NAM, NOW SUGGESTS THINGS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
MOVING AHEAD TO THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS LARGE
SCALE DESCENT OCCURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE, FOG
MAY SETTLE IN, MAINLY IN NE IA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRUGGLES IN SATURATING THE SURFACE LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE
REDUCED FOG MENTIONS TO PATCHY.
FREEZING RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING, NIGHT NORTH OF I-94
CHRISTMAS DAY, A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER WAVE MOVING OVER MAINE. IN OUR CWA, EASTERLY WINDS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER REGIME THAN TODAY WILL SET UP, HOLDING
TEMPERATURES ALONG I-94 TO AROUND 34 WITH HIGHS IN CLARK/TAYLOR
COUNTIES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. A DISJOINTED PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
LOOK TO EJECT DOWNSTREAM IN QUICK SUCCESSION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPGLIDE IN THE PRESENCE OF SATURATED OR NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS ON THE 285-295K SURFACES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PROGGED SOUNDING
IN THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES WITH THESE
HOVERING CLOSER TO FREEZING ALONG I-94. 24.12Z HREF IS ALSO ON BOARD
WITH A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES. HAVE THEREFORE RETAINED THE FREEZING
RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH THIS UPDATE. 24.12Z HRRR AND 24.15Z
RAP PROFILES AT NECEDAH SUGGEST I-94 WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT
PERIOD WITH FREEZING RAIN. THIS, COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES (MID 30S IN SE MN PER MNDOT) DUE TO OUR
RECENT SHIFT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS, ALSO POINTS TOWARD A
LIMITED (15-20%) RISK FOR IMPACTS ALONG I-94. GIVEN CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE FREEZING RAIN,
HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BACK TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES VERY LIKELY (40-99%) SPIKE
INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
EJECT OVER THE PLAINS, DRIVING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN OUR CWA IN
RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN E CO. TEMPS THEN RETURN INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY'S HIGHS, MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S, WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND HAVE QUITE A BIT OF
ROOM TO MOVE DOWN FROM 24.13Z NBM OUTPUT SHOULD THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TREND JUST A COUPLE HOURS SOONER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
ONGOING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AREAWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS ARE REPORTED FOR MOST WITH IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME MIST/FOG HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA, BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN HOW IMPACTFUL IT WILL BE IN
OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY 2SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE (30-50%) OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE CLOSER TO I-35. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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