952
FXUS63 KARX 250541
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.
- FREEZING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY (40-70%) NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE AMOUNTS FAVORED TO
BE LIGHT, ONLY A LITTLE BIT IS NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN COLDER
THAN NORMAL RETURNS THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOG EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WEAK LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE OBS AND INCREASING STRATUS, SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SOUTH
OF I-90. THAT SAID, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON AMOUNT AND
DURATION OF LIFT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT, WHILE INCREASING, HAVE DONE
SO AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
HAVE REDUCED THE PROBABILITY FOR DRIZZLE OVERALL AND SWITCHED FROM
COVERAGE TO UNCERTAINTY BASED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT ANY DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID UPON REACHING
THE SURFACE AS THE LONE HOLDOUT, THE NAM, NOW SUGGESTS THINGS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
MOVING AHEAD TO THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS LARGE
SCALE DESCENT OCCURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE, FOG
MAY SETTLE IN, MAINLY IN NE IA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRUGGLES IN SATURATING THE SURFACE LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE
REDUCED FOG MENTIONS TO PATCHY.
FREEZING RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING, NIGHT NORTH OF I-94
CHRISTMAS DAY, A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER WAVE MOVING OVER MAINE. IN OUR CWA, EASTERLY WINDS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER REGIME THAN TODAY WILL SET UP, HOLDING
TEMPERATURES ALONG I-94 TO AROUND 34 WITH HIGHS IN CLARK/TAYLOR
COUNTIES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. A DISJOINTED PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
LOOK TO EJECT DOWNSTREAM IN QUICK SUCCESSION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPGLIDE IN THE PRESENCE OF SATURATED OR NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS ON THE 285-295K SURFACES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PROGGED SOUNDING
IN THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES WITH THESE
HOVERING CLOSER TO FREEZING ALONG I-94. 24.12Z HREF IS ALSO ON BOARD
WITH A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES. HAVE THEREFORE RETAINED THE FREEZING
RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH THIS UPDATE. 24.12Z HRRR AND 24.15Z
RAP PROFILES AT NECEDAH SUGGEST I-94 WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT
PERIOD WITH FREEZING RAIN. THIS, COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES (MID 30S IN SE MN PER MNDOT) DUE TO OUR
RECENT SHIFT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS, ALSO POINTS TOWARD A
LIMITED (15-20%) RISK FOR IMPACTS ALONG I-94. GIVEN CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE FREEZING RAIN,
HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BACK TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES VERY LIKELY (40-99%) SPIKE
INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
EJECT OVER THE PLAINS, DRIVING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN OUR CWA IN
RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN E CO. TEMPS THEN RETURN INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY'S HIGHS, MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S, WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND HAVE QUITE A BIT OF
ROOM TO MOVE DOWN FROM 24.13Z NBM OUTPUT SHOULD THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TREND JUST A COUPLE HOURS SOONER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
STRATUS DECK EMBEDDED WITH DENSE FOG OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA SEEN SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE PERSISTED VLIFR AT KRST AND MVFR AT
KLSE INTO THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN LOWER OBSERVATIONS PERSISTING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EDGE OF STRATUS AND IMPACTS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY (KLSE AND NORTH)
NEAR 10Z. ANY ERADICATION IN SKY COVER IS SHORT LIVED AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EBBS NORTH AGAIN, RETURNING INITIAL MVFR CEILINGS
TO KLSE, EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR AFTER THE 25.06Z TAF PERIOD
TERMINUS.
EDGE OF STRATUS AND ACCOMPANYING IMPACTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, RETURNING LIFR-VLIFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
25.06Z TAF PERIOD TERMINUS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR LIFTING FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOME WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, LINGERING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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