943
FXUS63 KARX 260959
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
359 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN LEAVES UNCERTAINTY ON
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST IMPACTS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST FOR 1"+ ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES & CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND:
UPPER LEVEL GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VWPS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SHOW THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS EXITING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS CLOUD COVER THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY. GIVEN RECENT OVERFORECASTING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS, HAVE DECREASED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE LIMITED PRECIPTIATION CHANCES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT, TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIMIT ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG POTENTIAL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY:
SUBSEQUENT WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
INITIAL RAIN SWITCHES TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PLUNGE OF
SUBSEQUENT ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. INDIVIDUAL LONG TERM ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED
TOWARDS A DEEPER, STRONGER MID LEVEL EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMING AND PHASING FROM ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC CONFLUENCE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNIFICATION OF A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
SYNOPTIC STREAMS NEAR/OVER THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING DISCREPANCIES
AND EVOLVING FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, WHILE CURRENT SIGNAL ISN'T AS STRONG, SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC SET UP SEEN LEADING UP TO THE STORM PROMPTING A
BLIZZARD WARNING A WEEK AGO. THE SYNOPTIC LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN ARCTIC PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE QUITE FAR OUT, ENSEMBLE
SOUNDINGS SHOW A THICK SURFACE BASED DGZ WITH A MEAGER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION LIMITING NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SQUALLS.
GIVEN INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, COLLABORATED
LAST MINUTE UPDATE WITH NEWEST NBM POPS & QPF WITH NEIGHBORING
FORECAST OFFICES. THIS INCREASED LOCAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM NEAR
NIL TO ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TO 2" WHICH ALIGNS WITH
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SIMILAR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 1/4 OF A MILE
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, IMPROVING AT MOST LOCALES DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY TO BETWEEN 3-6 SM BEFORE STARTING TO LOWER
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO HOLD
INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KITS FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z SATURDAY
MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ033-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...SKOW
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