276
FXUS63 KARX 262329
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
529 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG FORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME DENSE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE TO LESS THAN A MILE
AT TIMES.
- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT WINTER STORMS INCHING CLOSER TO THE LOCAL
REGION, BRINGING A HIGHER THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS: A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW, WINDS GUSTING 40+ MPH (60-70% CHANCES), AND DROPPING
TEMPS THAT COULD FREEZE WET SURFACES, LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
> TONIGHT-SAT MORNING: FOG POTENTIAL
WITH LIGHT WINDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG INVERSION
OVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...FOG WILL FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST VISIBILITY WILL
BE LESS THAN A MILE...POTENTIALLY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS...AT
TIMES. FEEL WE WILL NEED ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER THE CAVEAT IS HOW MUCH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WOULD CAUSE FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD FOR DENSE FOG...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD ERODE FOG
QUICKER.
> WINTER STORM SUN/SUN NIGHT: TRENDING STRONGER AND TRACKING CLOSER
TO THE LOCAL AREA. RELATED LIKELY IMPACTS ALSO INCREASE: SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS, STRONG WINDS, FALLING TEMPS. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE GEFS AND EPS CONTINUE TO DROP A PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN, DRIVING IT ACROSS THE OH
RIVER VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING.
DEFINITE STRENGTHENING TREND IN THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST
24-36 HOURS, SHOWING A SLOWING, SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACK, WITH AN UPTICK IN STRENGTH. FURTHER, BOTH
THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE A MAJORITY OF THEIR MEMBERS SUGGESTING AN EVEN
SLOWER SYSTEM, TAD STRONGER IS MORE LIKELY THAN WHAT THE MEANS
DEPICT. CONSIDERING HOW THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOVING,
THIS TREND BEARS HOLDS SOME WEIGHT.
WHAT THIS SHIFT IN STORM TRACK/SYSTEM STRENGTH MEANS LOCALLY IS THE
DEFORMATION REGION WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LAYS OUT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, MORE QPF/SNOW SUGGESTED, AND LINGERS LONGER
(ENHANCING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS). ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE STRONGER,
WITH A LOCAL PEAK MORE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON.
- PRECIPITATION: AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ONGOING FROM SAT
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A STRONGER FOCUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT-NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,
LIKELY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS WILL BE
RAIN AND COULD BRUSH PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
JUST NORTHWEST OF THERE THE DEFORMATION REGION OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
START TO BLOSSOM WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON, LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT BUT CONTINUING TO DROP LIGHT PCPN INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF WI. INITIALLY RAIN, THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN JUST SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN FROM CANADA. THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD BE REALIZED SUN
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS COOL BELOW FREEZING BUT CLOUD DEPTH ISN'T DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE. GEFS SITS AT 10% FOR THESE CHANCES, MOSTLY
OVER PARTS OF SE MN/NE IA. LOW END CHANCES, BUT THINK WORTH KEEPING
A CLOSE EYE ON.
FOR SNOW, TIME AND RESIDENCE SUGGEST HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH OF I-90, I-
94. LATEST OUTLAY DROPS 2 TO 4" NORTH OF 1-94 WITH 1 TO 3" SOUTH OF
THERE. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM TRACK
HAVING A LARGE BEARING ON HOW MUCH FALLS WHERE, ALONG WITH HOW
QUICKLY PCPN CAN TRANSITION TO JUST SNOW.
- WINDS: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY, NOT SLACKENING UNTIL
LATER MON EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN SUN NIGHT, AND WHILE THE
MIXED LAYER IS ONLY SLATED TO BE AROUND 2.5 KFT, THERE IS 40+ KTS OF
WIND AT THE TOP OF THAT LAYER - AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE
LAYER WILL WORK TO BRING A LOT OF THAT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE EPS HAS 60-70% CHANCES FOR 40 MPH GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF SE MN/NE IA WITH 10 TO 20% CHANCES TO PUSH PAST 45 MPH.
WITH INITIAL RAIN, RAIN SNOW MIX...FAIRLY WET SNOW WILL BE HARD TO
MOVE. BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, AND A LIGHTER,
MORE EASY TO MOVE SNOW IS MORE LIKELY. BLOWING, DRIFTING SNOW COULD
BECOME A CONCERN WHERE AN INCH PLUS FALLS.
- TEMPS: SLUG OF COLD CANADIAN AIR TO FLOW IN POST THE STORM SYSTEM
WITH LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC DROPPING 850 MB
TEMPS FROM AROUND +7 C AT 12Z SUN TO -4 C BY 00Z SUN EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS STILL TRENDING TO OCCUR AT 12:01 AM FOR MANY. WITH STRONG
WINDS ON TAP FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BELOW ZERO.
A RAW END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION, WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO SNOW, RELATIVELY
WARM ROADS WILL QUICKLY CHILL...AND WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN WET WILL
BECOME ICY/SNOW COVER AND SLICK. ANOTHER POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARD.
> NEXT WEEK: COLDER START TO THE WEEK WITH A SMATTERING OF SNOW
CHANCES.
CHANGE IN THE FAVORED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE EPS AND GEFS LEANING
INTO MORE TROUGHING AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. AMPLE COLD, CANADIAN FLOWS SOUTHWARD IN THIS SCENARIO. 75% OF
THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS SUGGEST HIGHS WOULDN'T WARM OUT OF THE
TEENS FOR MOST WED-FRI.
A FEW BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD/WOULD DROP ACROSS A NORTHWEST
HANGING RIDGE, INTO THE TROUGH, BRINGING THE REGION SOME SNOW
CHANCES HERE AND THERE. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BULK OF THE GEFS AND
EPS MEMBERS TO SPIN A FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TUE, WITH ANOTHER TAKING A BIT MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ON WED. BOTH
COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE WPC CLUSTERS ALL POINT TO THE WEST
COAST RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GRADUALLY LEANING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NOT AS STOUT OF A RIDGE AS IT IS CURRENTLY,
WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE CLUSTERS ON RIDGE AXIS/STRENGTH. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, BUT IF CURRENT CLUSTERS
PLAY, SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY DROPPING TO LIFR
FOR BOTH ELEMENTS. DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE MINNESOTA AND NE IOWA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD
OVER THE COMING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER 15Z WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY VFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON (INCLUDING THE KLSE TERMINAL) BUT KRST
WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN DETERIORATE TO AREAWIDE
IFR/LIFR TOMORROW EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS WILL START
TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE. KRST
COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE MORNING TO BETWEEN 20-25
KTS BEFORE COMING DOWN AROUND SUNSET.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
019.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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