706
FXUS63 KARX 281749
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE WINTER STORM TODAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 6"+ ALONG AND NORTH THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS NEAR 45 MPH MAY
DECREASE OVERALL AMOUNTS WHILE EXACERBATING BLOWING SNOW AND
VISIBILITY IMPACTS. RAPID COOLING ALSO RAISES FREEZING ROADWAY
CONCERNS FROM INITIAL RAIN THIS MORNING.
- UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA WHILE UPGRADING SOME OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER
STORM WARNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
DURING THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING, SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MORNING OBSERVATIONS:
AN AREA OF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOPS MEANDERING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA IS
APPROACHING AN ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ON GOES DERIVED
UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH THEIR CONFLUENCE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEVERAGE 90TH TO MAX PERCENTILE MOISTURE (SPC RAOB
CLIMATOLOGY) THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM STRONG WINDS AND RAPID FREEZE
DUE TO THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY:
INITIAL RAINFALL (HREF) SPREADS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEFORE
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR
OR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON, PROVIDING A SWITCH IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE TO SNOW. WHILE FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT, HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RAPID, DEEP
COOL BELOW THE 0C ISOTHERM DUE TO THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM LIMITING OVERALL EXPECTATIONS. A LIMITED WINDOW LACKING
UPPER LEVEL ICE INTRODUCTION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WOULD
BE THE LIMITED, SCATTERED CULPRIT SHOULD A MINUSCULE EXTENT OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION OCCUR.
SNOWFALL TIMING & CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL, HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM NORTH-
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIED
TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL (850MB/700MB) FRONTOGENESIS. WHILE HREF
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING (18Z-00Z) ALONG OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, MEMBERSHIP DEPICTS A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION.
THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION SEEN IN THE ARW (28.00Z), TARGETING
AN AREA OF 1" TO 2.5" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WHERE NODES OF
AMPLIFIED LOW LEVEL (850MB/700MB) FRONTOGENESIS ADVECT. WHILE
SNOWFALL WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING, ANOTHER ENHANCED
AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COLLOCATED WITH A THICK (3000M)
DGZ TONIGHT RETURNS HIGHER SNOWFALL RATE POTENTIAL PROGRESSING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LESS OF A SIGNAL IN HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR THIS AT THE CURRENT FORECAST HOUR AS MOISTURE IS
LOWER, HOWEVER IS SOMETHING WORK KEEPING AN EYE ON GIVEN
NIGHTTIME DRIVING AND MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATE POTENTIAL.
SNOW AMOUNTS & CONFIDENCE:
A STRONGER SOLUTION TO THE LOW INCREASED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND EXTENT OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, INCREASING
SNOWFALL TOTALS BY 1" TO 2". THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND DEPENDENCY ON TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS STILL LEAVES MUCH TO
BE DESIRED IN CONFIDENCE WITH HREF MEMBERS VARYING FROM 10"-13"
(10:1 SLR) ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
NAMNEST (28.00Z) AND ARW (28.00Z) TO 6"-9" (10:1 SLR) IN THE
HRRR (28.00Z) AND NSSL (28.00Z).
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, HAVE TONED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SOME FROM RAW SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT TO TEMPER 10"+
TOTALS FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THROTTLING 20:1
SLRS GIVEN EXPECTED DENDRITIC DEMOLITION FROM THE HIGH WINDS.
WINTER IMPACTS & CONFIDENCE:
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTS REMAINS HIGH AS THE TIGHTENED
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT INCREASES NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 45 MPH CONCURRENT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HIGHER
INITIAL SNOWFALL RATES WILL PROVIDE A BLOWABLE SNOWPACK, AMOUNT
OF INITIAL SURFACE MELTING SOLIDIFYING ACCUMULATIONS AND
LIMITING TRANSPORT REMAINS THE INHERENT CHALLENGE. REGARDLESS,
THE HIGHER RATES AND WET ROADS COMBINED WITH THE PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES PERSISTS FREEZING ROAD IMPACTS. GIVEN THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING A COUPLE COUNTIES SOUTH IN WISCONSIN, UPGRADING THE
PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE SOLIDIFICATION OF
ACCUMULATING, POTENTIALLY BLOWABLE SNOWPACK REMAINS A QUESTION,
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS COLLOCATED WITH
CONFIDENCE FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES, AND INITIAL FREEZING
AREAS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA WERE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS WELL WHICH
ALIGNS WITH LOCAL BLIZZARD CLIMATOLOGY.
NEXT WEEK COLD:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE FAST
AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE GEFS AND EPS KEEP THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI UNDER ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS WITH THURSDAY CONTINUING TO TREND
COLDEST, LREF PROBABILITIES FOR SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-033-034-041>044-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ055-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ096.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-088.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ030.
UPDATE...BOYNE
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...DTJ
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