592
FXUS63 KARX 291803
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1203 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING WINTER STORM IMPACTS FROM INCREASED, PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH BLOWING/DRIFTING FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW AND AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOWFALL CONTINUE BLIZZARD &
WINTER STORM WARNINGS & ADVISORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ASSESSMENT THROUGH MORNING
SHOULD CONDITIONS BETTER QUICKLY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE, LOWEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY NEARING 15 BELOW TONIGHT.
- COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NEW YEARS EVE & DAY. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES NEARING 25 BELOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR TUESDAY WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
ONGOING WINTER IMPACTS & CONTINUING HEADLINES:
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
EXITING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITHIN A
DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM INTENSE SURFACE
LOW THAT UNDERWENT 1 MB PER HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE LAST 15 HOURS ACCORDING TO WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS. AS THE
UPPER-MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST WITH GLOBAL FLOW,
ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
REINTENSIFY A TEMPORARY LULL IN STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, AM KEEPING PREVIOUS
HEADLINES (BLIZZARD, WINTER STORM, WINTER ADVISORY) AND TIMES
THE SAME. ONGOING IMPACTS, ALBEIT NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE
AS DURING STORM PEAK, WILL CONTINUE INTO MORNING HOURS FROM
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR WIND SPEEDS UP
TO 45 MPH GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING LIMITS
IMPACTS EXPECTATIONS.
COLD TODAY, TONIGHT, & WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
WHILE WINDS EVENTUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(FORECASTED DAYTIME HIGHS ALIGN WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS),
RESULT IN BELOW ZERO APPARENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG OUR
WEST WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS; APPARENT TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING
OUT NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONFIDENCE AND
FORECAST, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NOT WARRANTED.
PERSISTENT MID- UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, RETURNING LREF PROBABILITIES FOR ~25TH
PERCENTILE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C BY THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE LOW, APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOULD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BE WARRANTED WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEW YEARS EVE (WED NIGHT) - NEW
YEARS DAY (THUR) HOLIDAY IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUBSEQUENT MEAGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOT THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK, INITIALLY
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WHILE STRONGER FORCING WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE ON TUESDAY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01" OF QPF IN LREF HAS SHIFTED 100%
PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS,
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS
(29.00Z). THEREFORE, HAVE INCREASED POPS AWAY FROM NBM GIVEN THE
NEWEST ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE AND NBMS ABYSMAL PERFORMANCE DURING
LOWER QPF SITUATIONS. AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STOUT, FROZEN PRECIPITATION SOUNDINGS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
WITH QUESTIONS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION COLLOCATES WITH LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL ICE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
MAIN TAF CONCERN IS LINGERING STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA CONTINUES TO WRAP LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
CLOUDS WILL ERODE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPACT BOTH THE RST/LSE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN IS ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER POSSIBLY IN MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE MENTION SINCE TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE AFTER TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...DTJ
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