169
FXUS63 KARX 150517
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1117 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT SNOW BEGINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT REMAINS DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AT A GIVEN LOCATION.
- OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT, 1-3 INCHES OVER THE 1-2 DAY
SPAN, WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY DRIVEN MORE BY INCREASING
WINDS ON FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. MORNING WIND CHILLS FALL TO BETWEEN -10 AND -20.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
REST OF TODAY - THURSDAY MORNING: SEASONABLE AND DRY
A 1032-MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
MIGRATES EASTWARD AND OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SURFACE WINDS RELAX WITH ITS APPROACH WITH THE ONLY
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY LAKE-EFFECT
INDUCED CLOUDS STREAM SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW CLOUD THICKNESSES
COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS DO NOT LEND STRONG CONFIDENCE TO
THIS CLOUD SHIELD HOLDING TOGETHER. SKIES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
CLEARER THAN THE MODELS SHOWED EARLIER AND WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAVORED BOG AREAS TANK BELOW ZERO IF TRENDS
HOLD.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON - FRIDAY MORNING: FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
LONGWAVE RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL FORCE A PV LOBE TO DROP SSE FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA
AND SETTLE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS THE EASTERN POST OF
THIS BLOCK. THE END RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT LASTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. INTRA- AND INTER- MODEL
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS
OF SNOW HAVE BEEN LESS THAN DESIRED, BUT NOT UNEXPECTED, GIVEN
THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE MESOSCALE FORCING THAT WILL DRIVE
ANY HIGHER SNOW RATES.
LATEST TRENDS IN THE 12Z HREF/RRFS MEMBERS HAVE BEEN FOR THE
ONSET OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE EARLIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT (0.5-1") THROUGH THE
EVENING GIVEN THE WEAKER FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. AS KINEMATIC
FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING PV LOBE, SNOW RATES LOOK
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. EITHER WAY
YOU SLICE THE FORECAST, SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1-2"
BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOSS OF MOISTURE AND ICE INTRODUCTION, THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZING DRIZZLE EVEN OCCURRING IS AROUND
20-30%. DID ADD IT IN TO THE FORECAST FOR A SHORT WINDOW
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT AS WITH THE SNOW FORECAST, THIS IS SUBJECT
TO CONTINUED CHANGE.
SEVERAL CAMS DO SHOW STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOLLOWING
A REGION OF SMALL MESOSCALE FGEN/SNOW BAND FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NE IOWA THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE TO SEE
IF THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN FUTURE RUNS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON - NIGHT: BLUSTERY WITH BLOWING SNOW RISK
FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. A FAVORABLE SHOW SHOWER/BLOWING SNOW
ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH
WHETHER WE SEE CONDITIONS REACH "SNOW SQUALL" LEVELS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI IS LESS CERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED
FORCING MECHANISM OUTSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STEEP LOW LAPSE
RATES, >0 J/KG SBCAPE, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KTS SHOULD BE
IN PLAY. THE QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND THE STRENGTH OF THE HCR-
ISH SNOW SHOWERS. THE RISK OF A FLASH FREEZE ALSO LOOKS TO BE
LOW SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
(ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF SEEING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT). ROADS COULD STILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM ANY
INCOMING SOLAR INSOLATION, SO CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT SOME
MELTING/REFREEZING.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: PESKY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
THE BLUSTERY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE LOW. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL ARE NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE STRUCTURE OF A SECONDARY TROUGH THAT DIPS
DOWN ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL PLAY INTO WHETHER WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY.
COLD WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HERALDS A STARK TRANSITION BACK
TO WINTERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FALL
20-25 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT
OF THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ON SATURDAY. EXACTLY HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES. ROUGHLY 10-20
PERCENT OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES OF -10
TO -20 FOR SUNDAY MORNING, A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO GIVEN THE FRESH
SNOWFALL AND CLEARING SKIES. A SIMILAR SETUP COULD PLAY OUT
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND AND AFTER 18Z THURSDAY SO
HAVE MOVED TO DEFINITE MENTIONS IN THE RST/LSE TAFS. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SEVERE WITH THIS ROUND OF SNOW,
HOWEVER. LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING OF SNOW, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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