718
FXUS63 KARX 160903
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA AND WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA BY DAYBREAK. BE SURE TO GIVE
YOURSELF EXTRA TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AS ROADS WILL BE
SNOW COVERED!
- ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR
TODAY MAY LEAD TO POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1" ARE
EXPECTED FROM ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SOME POTENTIAL
(30-50% CHANCE) FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR GREATER NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-90.
- COLDER THIS WEEKEND THEN TURNING BITTERLY COLD INTO MONDAY
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN -20F TO
-30F FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
TODAY - TONIGHT: ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW, INCREASING WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER
SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL RATES WITHIN
THIS ROUND OF SNOW HAVE LIKELY BEEN UNDER 1"/HR EVEN IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT BANDS. THIS SNOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
AROUND THE 6AM HOUR AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE CAMS. MOTORISTS WILL
WANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY THIS MORNING IN WESTERN WI AS
MANY ROADS WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVERED.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO AROUND 6-7C/KM AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL. CONSEQUENTLY,
EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL, THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 16.06Z RAP IS NOT OVERLY STRONG SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY BE A
STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHER RATES WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, IN
SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO MANAGE TO SEE RATES OF AROUND 1"/HR, THE
BLOWING SNOW PROBS IN THE 16.00Z HREF HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-
100%) FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1/2-MILE WITH MORE INTENSE
SNOW SHOWERS. AS FAR AS WIND GUSTS ARE CONCERNED, MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TO THE SURFACE OF A 30-35 KT WIND FIELD AT AROUND 900MB WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION WOULD SUGGEST SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WOULD
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE 500MB TROUGH AND SFC LOW REMAIN IN THE
AREA PROVIDING WEAK FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, REALLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF ACCUMULATIONS AFTER THIS MORNING ROUND OF SNOW
WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN 1" WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE LESS THAN THIS.
THIS WEEKEND: MUCH COLDER, BLUSTERY AND CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
SATURDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME WEAK QG FORCING RESULTING FROM THE REMAINING TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, AS BOTH THIS TROUGH AND A SURFACE FEATURE TO THE EAST BEGIN
TO PUSH EASTBOUND DURING THE MORNING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY EXIT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
AS WE BECOME ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY, A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. FAIRLY DECENT QG CONVERGENCE IN THE MID-
LEVELS ACCOMPANIED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROFILE AMPLE LIFT
DURING THIS PERIOD ALBEIT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE (PWATS IN THE NAM
GENERALLY UNDER 0.25"). AS A RESULT, DUE TO ITS FAST PROGRESSING
NATURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE, ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE NBM HAVING MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30-50%)
FOR AN INCH OR GREATER NORTH OF I-90 ASSUMING AN 18:1 SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT USHERING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
ON SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EC ENSEMBLE
HAVING MODEST PROBABILITIES (40-80% CHANCE) FOR WIND GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: BITTERLY COLD MONDAY, STAYING COLD NEXT WEEK
AS WE START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THE CORE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
ATTEMPTS TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
FOR MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIAN HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS OUR REGION
ON MONDAY STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BLUSTERY. CONSEQUENTLY,
PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY HIGH (50-80% CHANCE) IN THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW -25F ON MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS TO OUR EAST BUT THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS SUBJECTED TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY, INTER-
QUARTILE RANGE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
NBM GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO 20S WITH WIND CHILLS DURING THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO SNEAK A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, BIT EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG THIS
SYSTEM WOULD BE BUT THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE)
HAS MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-70% CHANCE) FOR MEASURABLE SNOW
DURING THIS 24HR PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE
IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES. AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS, EACH WAVE WILL
PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A HALF INCH.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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