752
FXUS63 KARX 170847
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
247 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE EXITING THE LOCAL AREA BY NOON. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A UP TO 0.5-1" EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5-1.5". SOME BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY
EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
INCREASING WIND GUSTS.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY AND THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. WINDS CHILLS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY (60-90%
CHANCE) BE COLDER THAN 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
TODAY: LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING, NOTICEABLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS
CENTER WHERE THIS SNOWBAND IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. OVERALL,
VISIBILITIES WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1-
3 MILE WHICH ACCOMPANIED WITH VALUES OF AROUND 20DBZ OR LESS ON
REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST RATES PROBABLY OF AROUND 0.25"/HR OR LESS
AT MOST SPOTS. AS WE CONTINUE TO HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING, THE
17.06Z RAP GENERALLY SHIFTS THIS AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH SUGGESTING THAT SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY AROUND THE NOON HOUR. GENERALLY MUCH OF THE CAMS AGREE ON
THIS, HAVING THE BULK OF THEIR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA BY AROUND THIS TIME. AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED, GIVEN THE LIGHT RATES WOULD ONLY EXPECT
ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS TO 0.5" WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS UP TO 1"
ON THE HIGH END JUST BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
(NBM MEAN BEING AROUND 20:1). OTHERWISE, WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST OVER THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY, EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW, GUSTY WINDS BEHIND ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE CURRENT
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE CAMS GENERALLY
AGREE ON OVERSPREADING LIGHT SNOW THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL
THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL QG
CONVERGENCE WITH THE BETTER 500-700MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 17.06Z
RAP DIVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE
SOME SLIGHTLY MORE INVIGORATED SNOW SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE, THIS
WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE AS
PWATS IN THE NAM/RAP ARE UNIMPRESSIVE AT ONLY 0.1 TO 0.2". AS A
RESULT, ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HREF AND NBM HAVE PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 1" BEING FAIRLY RESPECTABLE (40-80% CHANCE) NORTH
OF THE MN/IA STATE LINE. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 2" ARE
MUCH LOWER (10-20%). WHAT IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE LIKELY
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH THIS THAT THESE PROBABILITIES WERE
COMPUTED WITH. THE RECENT LONG-RANGE RAP SOUNDINGS AT LA CROSSE
HAS AS MUCH AS 350MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE RESIDENCY WHICH IS
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHTER, MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE NBM MEAN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO IS AROUND 20:1
FOR THIS SYSTEM AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. SO WHILE WE ARE LACKING IN THE MOISTURE DEPARTMENT
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, IF WE DO OVERACHIEVE ON MOISTURE EVEN
SLIGHTLY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD TREND HIGHER FAIRLY EASILY.
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH THIS COLD ADVECTION PASSING THROUGH, MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE
17.00Z NAM HAS 40 KT WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER WHICH COULD EASILY
TRANSFER DOWN SOME 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THIS RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW (25% AREAL COVERAGE) AS THE 17.00Z HREF HAS MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (40-60%) WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OF 1/2-MILE OR LESS DUE TO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING
THE EVENING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE
HREF MAINTAIN THESE PROBABILITIES.
MONDAY - FRIDAY: BITTERLY COLD MONDAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
BY MONDAY MORNING, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PUSHES THE CORE OF AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO OUR SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -
22C TO -25C. CONSEQUENTLY, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING
TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FURTHERMORE, WITH THE
ONGOING BLUSTERY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LIKELY STILL
ON MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (60-90% CHANCE) IN THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW -25F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY REALLY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH WITH VALUES ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SUGGESTED BY THE MEDIAN OF THE NBM. THIS
COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY WINDS WILL MEAN AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE -10F, SO REALLY WILL NOT FEEL
MUCH BETTER DURING THE DAY.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES "WARM UP" SOME INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLDER CORE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES EXITS, BUT LIKELY
WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REINFORCING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR HIGHS
IN THE NBM THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW 20S. AS FAR AS SNOW CHANCES ARE CONCERNED, THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR THIS COMES ON TUESDAY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL VARIES ON TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THIS WAVE, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-70%) FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT, WOULD EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE NBM TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
PERIODIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AN 950-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
BAND LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 IN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL IMPACT BOTH KLSE AND KRST. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION, IT WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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