244
FXUS63 KARX 180526
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1126 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL 1" TO 2" OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF HIGHER SNOWFALL CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT PERPETUATE TRAVEL IMPACTS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING:
A TROUGHING APPENDAGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES ON GOES WV CYCLONIC ROTATION, IS
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, NEARING A QUASI-
NORMAL ABUTMENT TO AN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TO OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
SYNOPTIC CONFLUENCE HAS STRUNG THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS IN THE TEENS. WHILE THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPARED FROM THE COLDEST, MINIMUM ANOMALY
850MB TEMPERATURES (OAX RAOB SPC CLIMATOLOGY) FOR NOW,
SUBSEQUENT DIGGING AND DIVING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON GOES-W
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA & ALBERTA USHERS IN BITTER, MINIMUM
ANOMALY 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PROBABILITIES (60%) IN THE -25C ISOTHERM AT 850MB INITIAL
REACHES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING (HREF), LINGERING
15% TO 40% LREF PROBABILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO REACH 100%
INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, STICKING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, TAPPING INTO
INCREASED OFF SURFACE WINDS WITH A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL
ISOHEIGHT GRADIENT FROM A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE (EPS/GEPS/GEFS 17.12Z)
CONFIDENCE FOR 30KT WINDS AT 925MB REACHES 100% SUNDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RESULTANT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND PROBABILITIES OF 20KTS RESULT IN WIND CHILL
PROBABILITIES REACHING 100% FOR COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA (-25F)
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE AND
CURRENT FORECASTS, HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS
FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW EXPECTED.
SNOWFALL SUNDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON GOES-W WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA & ALBERTA DIGS AND DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT FROM AN ENHANCED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ON GOES DERIVED WINDS, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LOCALLY FOR
SUNDAY. INITIAL SNOW CHANCES ACCOMPANY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG A MERIODIONALLY-ORIENTED FRONT ADVECTING ZONALLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL,
HIGHER POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
SUBSEQUENT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED INITIALLY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE WAVE SAGS
SOUTHEAST, DGZ THICKNESSES DECREASE AND SHUNT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
AS BURBLES OF SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DRIVE
SNOWFALL. RESULTANT HREF CONFIDENCE FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.1"
PER HOUR DECREASE FROM 80% TO 40% AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPROACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH WAS SHUNTED SOUTHWEST
LIMITS OVERALL AMOUNTS AND PROBABILITIES TO 1" TO 2".
CONCURRENT WITH HIGHEST SNOW CHANCES EXITING EAST, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 30-40 MPH PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, PERPETUATING WINTER IMPACTS FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
FLUFFY SNOWPACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, DECREASING OVERALL WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING WINTER
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE
ALREADY CLEARED AT KRST AND MAY CLEAR AT KLSE OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DOES CLEAR AT KLSE IT WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AROUND 18.15Z AT KRST AND 18.18Z FOR KLSE. THE SNOW WILL PRODUCE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY EVENING. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IF THIS OCCURS, IT
WOULD BE LIKELY MORE PROBABLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ008-009-018-019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ010-011-029-030.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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