894
FXUS63 KARX 180912
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AROUND 1-2" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING, LEADING TO MINOR IMPACTS (USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING) AS SNOW FALLS.
- WINDS RAMP UP THIS EVENING, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE BOTH
TERRAIN AND WINDS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE COMPARED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE
AREAS DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL MODERATE IMPACTS (USE EXTRA
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING).
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY:
NEXT UPPER WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA TODAY. WHILE OVERALL
MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED, PRETTY GOOD PVA WITH THE WAVE
SHOULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION WITH PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND 18.00Z MPX
RAOB CLEARLY POINTING TOWARD AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES FIRMLY IN THE DGZ FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE. GIVEN THIS
PROFILE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE HOURS WITH A DEEP DGZ, HAVE
MOVED SNOW RATIOS TOWARD THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE, ABOVE 20:1. THUS,
WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, SHOULD EASILY GET AT LEAST 1" OUT OF
TODAY'S SNOW WITH SOME SPOTS ENDING UP AROUND 2". INDEED, ADJUSTING
18.00Z HREF PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR A 20:1 RATIO, ALL BUT OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST HAS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE TO TOP 1" WITH THIS
PROBABILITY APPROACHING 90% ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT:
AS THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO DEPART, 40-45 KNOT 850/925MB UPPER JET
ADVANCES OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST THE MISSISSIPPI. WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG CAA ALONG COUPLED WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1 MB/HR, SHOULD SEE SOLIDLY BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WEST OF
THE MORE SHELTERED MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FALLING SNOW AS WINDS RAMP UP AND EXPECTED FRESH SNOW ON THE
GROUND, IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW APPEAR PROBABLE. DUE TO LIMITED
CONTRIBUTION FROM FALLING SNOW, DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST FOR
EXPECTED PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL MODERATE (EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING)
IMPACTS.
COLD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING:
ONGOING COLD TEMPERATURES - VALUES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO - DON'T GO ANYWHERE FOR TONIGHT
AND WILL IN FACT BE REINFORCED AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING SURFACE GRADIENT AFTER THE SOLIDLY BREEZY
EVENING, CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING WILL CAUSE
WIND CHILLS TO PLUMMET BELOW -25 AND GET CLOSE TO -35. NEEDLESS TO
SAY, HAVE RETAINED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE SYSTEM EJECTS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE TO
REACH 3" OF ACCUMULATION (10% PER 18.07Z NBM), OVERALL PATTERN
SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOWER QPF SETUP. POPS WILL VERY LIKELY NEED TO
INCREASE ABOVE NBM VALUES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE
ALREADY CLEARED AT KRST AND MAY CLEAR AT KLSE OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DOES CLEAR AT KLSE IT WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AROUND 18.15Z AT KRST AND 18.18Z FOR KLSE. THE SNOW WILL PRODUCE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY EVENING. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IF THIS OCCURS, IT
WOULD BE LIKELY MORE PROBABLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BOYNE
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