458
FXUS63 KARX 191721
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1121 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A RELATIVE RESPITE MIDWEEK, ANOMALOUS COLD RETURNS
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THE COLDEST
MORNING IS FAVORED TO OCCUR SATURDAY. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
WARRANTED.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-90 (95% CHANCE), THAT
ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTALS ACROSS BOTH ROUNDS COMBINED MAY (30-50%) REACH 3" SOUTH
OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
DANGEROUS COLD THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
LIGHT SNOW HAS FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT BRISK
WINDS REMAIN AS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO GUST TO
AROUND 25-35 MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS OF 07Z. DESPITE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THUS, DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
OCCURRING WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -35 RANGE. WITH A 30-
40 KNOT 850MB JET FAVORED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 18Z,
WILL KEEP THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOING UNTIL NOON. AFTER NOON AND
INTO TONIGHT, REDUCING WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS FROM FALLING
BACK UNDER 25 BELOW ZERO EVEN AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 0.
NEXT LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO CHURN SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT, USHERING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS
WILL VERY LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO FRIDAY (65-95% PER 19.01Z NBM),
SATURDAY (80-100%), AND SUNDAY (75-95%) MORNINGS. LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A LIGHT BREEZE FRIDAY MORNING MAY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
OF 25 BELOW OR LOWER. SATURDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LEAD TO AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW RANGE, OPENING THE DOOR FOR HIGHLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS SHOULD ANY LIGHT BREEZE DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY, OPERATIONAL
19.00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC PLACE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN
OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND 19.00Z LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE DOES AS
WELL, SUGGESTING THIS IS A PROBABLE OUTCOME. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS AS WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD THIS COME TO PASS.
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON
BROAD AGREEMENT ACROSS 19.00Z GUIDANCE THAT ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF ALBERTA TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITHIN OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/EC/CMC RUNS
AND SUPPORT IN 19.00Z ENSEMBLES, OPTED TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE NBM
VALUES (FROM 10-70% TO 40-95%). COMPARED TO OUR LAST FEW CLIPPERS,
THIS MAY HAVE A BIT MORE SNOW WITH IT AS, WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS
HARD TO COME BY, STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT COURTESY OF A BIT OF
700/850MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO THE PAST WEEKEND,
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DGZ AND AN ALL LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW
EVENT. REFLECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATION, 19.07Z NBM
HAS A 10-30% CHANCE TO REACH 3" SOUTH OF I-90 TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A QUICKLY FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL LIKELY (60%) BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW, PUSHING
THE CHANCE TO REACH 3" CLOSER TO 30-50% SOUTH OF I-90 ACROSS BOTH
EVENTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THE MVFR CEILINGS REPORTED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE CAUSED BY VERY SHALLOW AND OPTICALLY THIN
ICE CRYSTAL CLOUDS. WEBCAMS SHOW MUCH CLEARER SKIES (VFR) THAN
THE OBSERVATIONS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ICE
CRYSTAL OBSCURATIONS NEAR THE SURFACE IN THESE AREAS THAT COULD
DIP BELOW VFR AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CURRENT WNW WINDS OF 10-20KTS DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING TO 5-10 KTS AND SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS COMES
TUESDAY EVENING AS A QUICK HITTING BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
THE
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...SKOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page