376
FXUS63 KARX 051802
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY END AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE (20%) CAUSING SLIPPERY TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
- LIGHT SNOW (40-70%) AND FREEZING DRIZZLE (25%-35%)CHANCES
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INITIAL TRANSIENT
BOUT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT FILLS IN WITH LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ON SOUTHWESTERN
FLANK OF SNOW PRIMARILY FROM WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WARM TODAY:
HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%+) FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GRACING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LIGHT SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THIS MORNING:
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, SEEN ON EARLY MORNING SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS BIFURCATING THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAISES FREEZING
DRIZZLE CONCERNS IN ADDITION TO EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW.
AS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH MORNING HOURS, LOWER CONFIDENCE (20%) IN
SUBSEQUENT FREEZING DRIZZLE UPON DEPARTURE LATER THIS MORNING
IS DUE TO SIMILAR CONCURRENCE OF NEAR SURFACE DESATURATION WITH
LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL ICE NUCLEATION. ADDITIONALLY, FREEZING
DRIZZLE PRIMARILY EXPECTED WHERE LIGHT SNOW PREVIOUSLY FALLEN,
LIMITING ACCRETION ON BARE SURFACES.
LIGHT SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES TONIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING:
SUBSEQUENT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO OCCUR (30-40%) BUT EXACT LOCATION REMAINS IN
QUESTION. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TEMPORARILY ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IS
HIGH (80%), DEGREE OF COOLING POST SUNSET REMAINS THE INHERENT
ATMOSPHERIC CHALLENGE AS OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIMIT OUTGOING
LONGWAVE RADIATION WHILE BELOW FREEZING SOIL TEMPERATURES WILL
LEECH ENERGY FROM BELOW. THEREFORE MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH
AS FACE DIRECTION, AFFECTING THE RESIDUAL SNOW PACK AND
SUBSEQUENT ALBEDO, PERMITTING AN INCREASED BUDGET OF INCOMING
SHORTWAVE RADIATION DURING THE DAY ON MORE SOUTHERN FACING
SLOPES.
REGARDLESS, LOWER CONFIDENCE (15%) IN AN /INITIAL/ SHORT-LIVED
WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES DARTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (03Z-06Z) AS LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
LOBES PASS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DEEPENING UPSTREAM. THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (40-70%)
MAINLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE (25-35%),
LONGER LASTING (05Z-11Z) FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO TO REMAIN
COGNIZANT OF. CURRENT CONFIDENCE KEEPS THIS NARROW NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A SLIGHT WESTERN SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS GRAZES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER MOSTLY WITHIN THE INITIAL, LOWER CHANCES AND A GLAZE OF
ICE FORECASTED.
WARM AIR CONTINUES NEXT WEEK:
AS AN APPENDAGE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA PLUNGES THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START THE WEEKEND, A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED (60-80%) BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM AIR STAGES ITS RETURN TO WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE (47-54%) FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT SHOULD HAVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK IN SE MN AND
NE IA ERODE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST, A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER AND WEST OF A EAU-LNR WILL
SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE (70%) OR DRIZZLE (30%) DEPENDING ON EXACT
TEMPERATURE WHILE AREAS EAST OF THAT EAU-LNR WILL PRIMARILY SEE
SNOW. EITHER WAY, EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS RAMP UP AFTER THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIVER VALLEY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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