714
FXUS63 KARX 060901
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
301 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 50%) THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
UNTIL ABOUT 6AM.
- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THIS MORNING: FREEZING DRIZZLE, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS A GOOD FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL AT 700MB THAT HAS
MOSTLY SAT OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA MINUS AREAS NORTH OF I-94. THIS IS
WHERE THE WORSE IMPACTS AS FAR AS LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATES HAVE OCCURRED. DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-94,
SNOW HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. SOUTH OF I-94 HAS BEEN A LITTLE
TRICKY. CLOUD BASES HAVE STAYED ABOVE 6000FT INHIBITING LARGER
DROPLETS TO REACH THE SURFACE, INSTEAD VERY FINE DROPLETS HAVE MADE
IT THROUGH CREATING MORE MIST, WHICH IS FALLING INTO AREAS WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, RATHER THAN TRUE
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, CLOUD
BASES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY, BETWEEN
1500 AND 3000FT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE AS THE CLOUD BASES LOWER AND LOWER, THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING BIGGER DROPS AND THEREFORE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. WE ALREADY HAVE LOST THE ICE IN THE CLOUD SO
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IF DROPLETS CAN
REMAIN LIQUID AND NOT TURN INTO SNOW DUE TO HIGHER RATES. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA HAVE ICE COMING BACK INTO THE
CLOUD WHICH WOULD ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE
REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THIS ICE COMES BACK INTO
THE CLOUD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR, OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS MOSTLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT AS
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT
INCREASES WHICH COULD HELP THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE, SO
HAVE KEPT FLURRIES MENTIONED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
THIS AFTERNOON-SUNDAY: DRIER, COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY,
SEASONABLE SUNDAY
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AND WE STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS, SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AS A
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH IT COMES COLDER AIR
THAT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THE HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO MAINLY TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES FOR BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES). HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA JUST AS
QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED. FOLLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING LOW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 15%
BASED ON LREF), FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94. ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS,
SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AND BRINGS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
NEXT WEEK: WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK
AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD
USHERING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT,
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NBM RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 05.12Z EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
SUPPORTS THIS WITH SOME PROBABILITIES (50-70%) FOR MUCH WARMER THAN
EC CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL REMAIN FAIRLY
FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. BY MID-WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGES WEAKENS WITH ZONAL FLOW BEING RE-ESTABLISHED. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SOMEWHAT MID-WEEK WITH MEDIAN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE NBM.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONCERNED NEXT WEEK,
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRY TO BRING VARIOUS SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN HOW ANY FEATURE WOULD MANIFEST DURING
THIS TIME RANGE IS LOW AS THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN) ONLY
HAS BROAD BRUSHED 30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, THINKING THE NBM PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OF AROUND 15-
30% DURING THIS PERIOD ARE FEASIBLE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING FRONT USHERS IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL, THE RECENT HREF HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-90%) FOR THESE
CIGS TO PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA AROUND THE 08Z TIMEFRAME. STILL
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK AT KLSE AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH BETTER LIFT
COMING IN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE A -DZ AS
PREVAILING WITH PROB30 FOR -FZDZ AS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HAZY ON
IF SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ICING. REGARDLESS,
CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR UNTIL DAYBREAK WHERE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
LOW-MVFR SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. EVENTUALLY, DIURNAL MIXING WILL AID IN
LIFTING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CIGS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE IN UNSHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA/NAYLOR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page